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TINUBU’S PALLIATIVE PLAN: ONLY CENSUS DATA WILL REVEAL THE REAL POOR NIGERIANS

Published

3 years ago

July 26, 2023

✅ By Stanley O. Nwosu

The announcement by the Federal Government and subsequent approval by the National Assembly of the request to share N500 billion palliatives to poor and vulnerable households in Nigeria in order to cushion the adverse effect of the recent removal of fuel subsidy has continued to generate reactions on social and mainstream media as Nigerians continue to question its adequacy, mode of disbursement and sustainability.

Aside from the fact that the N8,000 monthly disbursement to 12 million households for a period of six months will not make any meaningful impact on the lives of these Nigerians, many people have also expressed concerns and worries as to whether the money will get to the real beneficiaries and not end up in the private pockets of privileged people, considering the dearth of credible and up-to-date data in the country and lack of transparency that trail disbursement of palliatives in Nigeria.

Accurate data is a very scarce commodity in Nigeria. Data credibility and integrity is also a big issue in the country. The country has been relying on estimated figures since the last Population and Housing Census in Nigeria over 17 years ago. There is no comprehensive, reliable and verifiable database of poor and vulnerable people in the country which only census data can provide.

The country has relied on the National Social Register (NSR) of poor and vulnerable households in Nigeria developed by the National Social Safety-nets Coordinating Office (NASSCO) for its social intervention programmes. As of April 2023, NASSCO has been able to enlist 15,724,871 households and 62,792,794 individuals into the NSR database.

The number of the enumerated poor and vulnerable individuals in the National Social Register falls far below over 133 million people who are multidimensionally poor in Nigeria. That means that the number of poor Nigerians outside the register is more than those included in the register.

Many poor Nigerians have been excluded from benefiting from palliatives. It’s also worrisome that only 17% of the individuals in the NSR have bank accounts while just 25% of them have valid means of identification. What it means is that only a small percentage of the poor citizens in the social register can be tracked with their identification number or bank verification number to ascertain whether they truly exist or fictitious names. Without verifiable means of identification of the vulnerable Nigerians, the social register will be susceptible to manipulation.

Although, NASSCO stated that it used a targeting and identification mechanism to build the National Social Register but the limited scope and inability to verify and track those individuals on the register makes it difficult to trust and rely on the database for planning.

The lack of a credible and unified database of the poor and vulnerable Nigerians affected the effective implementation of the National Social Investment Programme (NSIP) introduced by former president Muhammadu Buhari’s administration.

The Buhari government introduced a Conditional Cash Transfer programme of N5,000 monthly grants to poor and vulnerable households, the National Home-Grown School Feeding Programme (NHGSFP), the Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP), N-Power etc to empower the unemployed youth and women and reduced poverty in the country but unfortunately the laudable projects failed to create the desired impact in improving the quality of lives of the poor and vulnerable Nigerians.

Monthly, billions of naira were mapped out for these social investment programmes but the identity of the majority of the beneficiaries remains unknown to most Nigerians as everyone kept on asking who are the beneficiaries.

The Senate Public Account Committee while probing the N52 billion Special Public Works Programme coordinated by the National Directorate of Employment (NDE) to recruit 1,000 young Nigerians from each of the 774 LGAs for three months and pay them N20,000 each in 2020 demanded a list of the 774,000 Nigerian beneficiaries of the programme after some of its members disclosed that none of their constituents benefited from the programme. It then beats the imaginations of many to wonder about the database used for these intervention programmes, if senators could not identify their constituents among the beneficiaries.

No wonder that despite the efforts of the former President Muhammadu Buhari administration to lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in ten years but ended up plunging more Nigerians into poverty. The last administration met 60 million poor Nigerians upon the assumption of office in 2015 but left when the numbers increased to over 90 million.

The numbers have increased further as the World Bank disclosed that no fewer than four million Nigerians were pushed into the poverty trap in the first six months of this year, with another 7.1 million more expected to join the conundrum if properly targeted measures are not taken to manage the impact of fuel subsidy removal.

Even the recent decision of the National Economic Council led by Vice President, Sen. Kashim Shettima to jettison the National Social Register for State Social Registers due to lack of credibility and reliability does not make any difference as the State Registers are a component of the NSR.

If the NSR fails the data integrity test, it means State Registers will fail too. The only difference is that the disbursement of the palliatives will be done by the State Governments instead of the Federal Government.

Planning relies basically on data. The importance of planning with credible data to both an individual and a nation cannot be overemphasized in order to make efficient use of limited available resources for maximal satisfaction. Indeed, census data is the solution to the myriad of developmental challenges facing the county.

No country relies solely on its estimated population because such estimates ignore the demographics unearthed by census data which are needed for national planning purposes.

A national population census, in addition to determining the actual number of people, also gives us important data on the distribution of the population by age, sex, location, household characteristics and socio-economic strata among others. This detailed information is critical to national planning and development. A country that doesn’t know its true population would definitely not be in a position to determine the actual number of its poor citizens.

To get comprehensive, up-to-date and reliable data for the disbursement of palliative to the poorest households and other national development planning, the Federal Government should as a matter of urgency fix a date for the National Population Commission to complete the Population and Housing Census exercise that was postponed by the previous administration.

The 2023 Census will be the first fully digital census in the history of Nigeria. NPC has introduced innovative digital technology to be used in the entire census process starting from the Enumeration Area Demarcation to pretesting of tools, recruitment, data quality management, monitoring & evaluation, project management, communications, main data collection, fieldwork monitoring and dissemination of census data.

The forthcoming census will be the first time the whole population and housing units in the country will be geocoded. It means that the 2023 Census will provide verifiable data on the Nigerian population and link each person to a location.

Before now and as part of the preparatory activities for the upcoming census, the National Population Commission has successfully conducted Enumeration Area Demarcation (EAD) in the 774 LGAs and in the process captured all buildings in Nigeria with their geo-coordinates using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology.

NPC has also collaborated with NIPOST to create a proper digital addressing system in the country using the EAD geospatial dataset of all buildings in Nigeria. So, the census exercise will be to enumerate every person in Nigeria and link them to a particular building or location. With that information, tracking, identifying and planning for the citizens will be easy.

In addition, the census will canvass questions on the economic characteristics of the respondents to reveal their employment status and type of economic activities done in the last 7 days preceding the census night, and the housing characteristics and amenities to collect information on their type of buildings, construction materials used for the buildings, number of sleeping rooms, ownership status, tenure status of the households living in the buildings, source of drinking water, type of lighting and cooking fuel, and other household assets.

Questions will also be asked on housing sanitation to generate information on the type and sharing status of toilet facilities and other sanitation measures; difficulty in performing activities to ascertain the number of persons living with disabilities; Information Communication Technology to collect information on ICT devices owned and access to internet facility; literacy and education characteristics; internal migration; fertility and child survival status; survival status of the parents; demographic background and social characteristics; the impact of climate change as well as other thematic areas.

With the detailed information, the 2023 Population and Housing Census will not only provide a credible and verifiable database of the poor and vulnerable Nigerians but also where they live. Sharing of palliatives with this correct census data of the vulnerable households will help the governments to target the right beneficiaries and create the necessary impact of uplifting these poor Nigerians.

President Tinubu should as a matter of urgency prioritise conducting the upcoming Population and Housing Census and use the census data as the foundational guide for evidence-based planning and implementation of his administration’s renewed hope agenda.

©️ Stanley O. Nwosu, a writer, image maker, photo journalist, public affairs analyst, and political economist, is the NPC Social Media Manager

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Business

Turning Africa’s Raw Materials Into Wealth: The ARMS 2026 Industrial Agenda

Published

4 days ago

September 29, 2026

The Gleamer

By Joel Ajayi

For decades, Africa’s vast natural resources have powered industries and economies far beyond the continent, while many African countries have remained largely exporters of unprocessed commodities and importers of finished products.

That familiar pattern is now coming under renewed scrutiny as policymakers, researchers, investors and industrialists seek to change the direction of Africa’s resource economy.

At the centre of that conversation is the second edition of the Africa Raw Materials Summit (ARMS 2026), scheduled for October 19 and 20 at the Abuja Continental Hotel, Abuja, under the theme: “From African Feedstock to African Factories.”

Organised by the Raw Materials Research and Development Council (RMRDC), the summit is being positioned as more than another gathering of policymakers and industry stakeholders. It is intended to provide a platform for confronting the structural challenges that have kept African raw materials largely disconnected from local manufacturing.

Africa has for years operated largely within a “pit-to-port” economic model, exporting raw materials while importing expensive finished products.

Speaking at a press conference ahead of the summit on Tuesday in Abuja, the Director-General and Chief Executive Officer of RMRDC, Prof. Nnanyelugo Martin Ike-Muonso, said the event would bring together policymakers, investors, researchers, technology providers and industrialists to develop practical strategies for transforming Africa’s abundant natural resources into industrial wealth.

The challenge, therefore, is not simply the abundance of resources, but the continent’s ability to transform those resources into industrial value, employment, technology and wealth within Africa.

Nigeria alone, according to the RMRDC, has more than $582.4 billion in documented non-renewable natural resources, while the wider continent possesses substantial deposits of critical minerals, agricultural raw materials and industrial feedstock.

Yet, the benefits of this resource endowment have often been constrained by inadequate processing capacity, weak infrastructure, limited technology, financing gaps and fragmented regional value chains.

From Dialogue to Industrial Action

ARMS 2026 builds on the maiden edition held in May 2025, which attracted more than 1,000 delegates from across the world.

The inaugural summit also witnessed the unveiling of the Ten-Year Raw Materials Transformation Roadmap (2025–2034) by the Minister of State for Industry, Senator John Owen Enoh.

The roadmap was designed around areas including technological capability, climate-resilient processing and backward integration, establishing a policy framework for greater domestic utilisation of Africa’s raw materials.

The second edition is expected to move the conversation further by bringing policy, capital, technology and industrial stakeholders around practical mechanisms for turning raw materials into locally manufactured products.

One of the major proposals highlighted by the RMRDC is the 30 per cent Mandatory Value Addition Bill, which seeks to establish a statutory minimum level of value addition to Nigerian raw materials before export.

The Council says the proposed framework could support job creation, import substitution, foreign-exchange conservation and increased manufacturing contribution to the economy.

Building the Infrastructure for Value Addition

The industrial transformation envisaged by ARMS 2026 goes beyond legislation.

A major concern is the “missing middle” between where raw materials are produced and where factories are located.

Poor transportation networks, inadequate cold-chain facilities, weak rural roads, limited testing and certification infrastructure and border-related delays can make locally sourced materials more expensive and less competitive.

Consequently, logistics and infrastructure constitute one of the five principal pillars of the summit.

The objective is to develop more reliable corridors connecting farms and mines with processing centres and manufacturing facilities, thereby reducing losses and improving the movement of industrial inputs.

The Digital Dimension

Technology is also becoming an important part of the Council’s strategy.

The RMRDC says it has developed the Nigeria Integrated Information Statistical System for Raw Materials and Products (NISSRAMP), described as a digital repository containing information on feedstock deposits, specifications, production outputs and industrial absorption rates.

The Council has also highlighted its transition towards paperless operations and its certification as a Data Controller/Processor of Major Importance by the Nigeria Data Protection Commission.

Such digital infrastructure could provide investors and manufacturers with better information about the availability and characteristics of raw materials while supporting more informed industrial planning.

Turning Waste Into Industrial Inputs

Another major component of ARMS 2026 is the proposed expansion of the circular economy.

The summit will examine how agricultural by-products, mine tailings, scrap metals and biomass can be recovered and reused as inputs for new production processes rather than being treated simply as waste.

The RMRDC argues that such an approach could lower raw-material costs while supporting more sustainable and climate-resilient manufacturing systems.

For Africa, where industrial expansion must increasingly balance economic development with environmental considerations, waste industrialisation could become an important part of the continent’s manufacturing conversation.

From National Production to African Value Chains

The African Continental Free Trade Area is another important element of the summit’s agenda.

The RMRDC sees AfCFTA as an opportunity to create regional value chains in which raw materials sourced in one African country can be processed and supplied to manufacturers in another.

Under such a model, Africa would move beyond simply exporting commodities to external markets and develop stronger internal networks for supplying chemicals, refined minerals, agricultural inputs and other industrial materials across national borders.

This approach places regional integration at the heart of Africa’s industrialisation strategy.

Bridging Research and Capital

A recurring weakness in many developing economies is the gap between research and commercialisation.

Innovations may emerge from universities, research institutions and laboratories without receiving the financing, equipment or market connections required to become commercially viable.

ARMS 2026 intends to address that gap through technology commercialisation and capital linkages, connecting research outputs with investors, development finance institutions and industrial off-takers.

The RMRDC has also cited partnerships with the Bank of Industry for commercial-scale post-harvest processing and a South-South technology-transfer partnership with the National Innovation Centre par Excellence in Shanghai, China.

A Larger Industrial Conversation

The scale of ARMS 2026 is expected to be significantly larger than the maiden edition.

The organisers project more than 1,800 delegates from all 54 African countries and global industrial partners.

The programme will feature high-level policy dialogues, technical panels, an advanced raw materials and technology exhibition, industrial site visits and the African Raw Materials Industry Awards.

The exhibition, in particular, is expected to showcase locally fabricated processing machinery, advanced domestic materials, green chemicals and engineered commercial inputs.

Beyond the speeches and exhibitions, however, the real significance of ARMS 2026 will ultimately depend on what happens after the summit.

Africa’s challenge has never been a shortage of raw materials. The more difficult question has been how to transform those resources into factories, products, skilled employment, technology and sustainable economic opportunities.

For Nigeria and the rest of the continent, the proposed shift from “pit-to-port” to “feedstock-to-factory” therefore represents a broader debate about the future structure of African economies.

ARMS 2026 seeks to place that debate firmly on the industrial agenda — with value addition, technology, finance, infrastructure, circular production and regional trade at the centre.

If the commitments and partnerships generated by the summit translate into measurable industrial activity, the event could provide another platform for Africa to examine how its enormous resource base can support stronger domestic manufacturing.

The message from the organisers is clear: the continent’s raw materials should not only leave African soil as commodities; they should increasingly become the foundation for African industrial production

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