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WILL PRESIDENT TINUBU BREAK THE JINX OF UNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPTS TO CONDUCT THE NEXT CENSUS IN Nigeria?

Published

3 years ago

December 31, 2023

By Stanley O. Nwosu

Since the last Population and Housing Census in Nigeria in 2006, Nigerians and the rest of the world have waited endlessly for the next Population and Housing Census in the most populous black country in the world. It has taken an embarrassing dimension that successive governments after the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo have failed to conduct what now seems like an elusive census. No excuse is plausible enough to justify why Nigeria, the Giant of Africa, can not conduct the regular decennial censuses that other African countries such as Ghana, Kenya, Egypt, South Africa etc have been conducting.

Based on the United Nations’ Recommendation for a census to be conducted in either 5-year or 10-year intervals depending on the capacity of each country, the next census in Nigeria would have been conducted in either 2011 or 2016. Former President Goodluck Jonathan, who was the country’s president in 2011, started the process for the next census to be conducted in 2016. However, that administration exited in 2015 without accomplishing the wish.

Former President Muhammadu Buhari entered the saddle but unfortunately from 2015 to 2016, the country slipped into recession due to a crash in oil prices and production which distracted the then, new administration from going ahead with the proposed census in 2016. In 2018/2019, the Buhari regime recommitted to the conduct of the census but the COVID-19 pandemic that struck the world in 2020 disrupted plans for the exercise. After the COVID-19 pandemic, the Buhari government demonstrated more serious commitment and released funds for the completion of the Enumeration Area Demarcation (EAD) in the over 550 remaining un-demarcated LGAs in the country as at then with a set plan to conduct the Census in 2022. Once again, the 2022 proposed date failed to hold and the census was rescheduled for March 2023 after the general elections but the shifting of the gubernatorial elections from 11th to 18th March 2023 affected the census timeline. Like in similar situations in the past, the date for the census exercise was once more, rescheduled to hold from 3rd – 7th May 2023 before former President Buhari on 29th April 2023 (exactly one month to the end of his tenure) in an uncharacteristic nature of an average African leader to take glory of a legacy project such as the first digital, green and transformative Population and Housing Census in Nigeria to be conducted under his administration, surprisingly postponed the census exercise which all the preparations have been done remaining only the LGA level training of the field functionaries to a date to be decided by the next administration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Everyone expected, the Buhari government to conduct the census exercise, having committed and invested billions of Naira in its preparations.

However, the reason given by former President Buhari for the postponement was to allow the incoming administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to make input and own the census process in order to accept and make effective use of the census data for national planning and sustainable development. The 2023 general election largely contributed to pushing the conduct of the census towards the twilight of the last regime which gave room for the indefinite postponement of the exercise. The argument before the conduct of the 2023 general election was that the census exercise would be politicized and may affect the acceptability of the census outcome while the argument after the general election was that it would be too close to conduct a census in the same month that the last government would be exiting from office and there’s possibility that the new administration may not accept the results.

Just like voodoo, one thing always makes the census exercise to be postponed or not to be conducted at the proposed date. To further buttress the point, the irregular conduct of the census in Nigeria did not start today. Aside from the 1973 Census which was conducted exactly 10 years after the previous exercise in 1963, other censuses since Nigeria’s independence have been regrettably irregular. After the 1973 Census, it took Nigeria 18 years to conduct another census in 1991 and another 15 years to conduct the last Population and Housing Census in 2006. Now, it is almost 18 years and the next census is yet to be conducted.

It is a big shame that Nigeria which prides itself as the ‘Giant of Africa’ finds it difficult to count its population. It is embarrassing that Nigeria is on the verge of missing out on the two global rounds of censuses. Nigeria has already missed out on the 2010 round of censuses and is about to miss the 2020 round of censuses if it fails to conduct the next census in 2024. The 2020 World Round of Censuses recommended the use of technology for census taking to make the census process more efficient and cost-effective. The country seriously needs to take this opportunity to build a database of a geographically defined population. Less populous countries than Nigeria in Africa such as South Africa and Ghana have successfully conducted digital censuses in this current round of censuses.

Census data is so important and beneficial to any nation for planning in order to make efficient use of limited available resources for maximal satisfaction of its citizens hence why even developed countries such as the USA, United Kingdom, China etc have been regular with the conduct of decennial population census. It shows that no country relies solely on estimated population for national planning and development. Every country desirous of development needs a census to get up-to-date and reliable data about its population, who they are and where they live.

In Nigeria, the lack of constitutional provisions to make the decennial conduct of the Population and Housing Census mandatory contributes largely to the irregular conduct of the census in the country. Unlike the general election which has legal requirements in the constitution to be conducted every four years, Presidential Proclamation is required for a census to be conducted in Nigeria. It means that only the president of the country has the power to fix a census date, not even the National Population Commission which has the statutory mandate to conduct the census exercise. The lacuna in the constitution emboldens Nigerian presidents to fix a census date only when it is convenient for them or completely ignore the conduct of the census even when it is due.

Now that the ball to fix a date for the upcoming Population and Housing Census has been passed to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigerians and the world await to see if he will conduct the long-awaited next census earliest in 2024 or at least during his tenure and join the commendable league of former Nigeria Presidents/Heads of State such as Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo (rtd.) (2006), Gen. Ibrahim Babangida (rtd.) (1991), Gen. Yakubu Gowon (rtd.) (1973) and Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa (1962/63) in whose different regimes’ censuses were conducted or follow in the footsteps of the former leaders who failed to conduct census during their times.

President Tinubu should understand that he needs census data to achieve his renewed hope agenda. He needs the next census data to generate revenue, fight insecurity, boost businesses, build infrastructures, provide social amenities and plan for economic transformation of the country. The upcoming Census will provide foundational and up-to-date data to drive the country’s developmental goals and improve the living standards of the Nigerian people.

Moreover, President Bola Tinubu has shown open commitment to support the conduct of the next Population and Housing Census in Nigeria.

It is gratifying to note that Mr. President has endorsed the forthcoming Population and Housing Census Budget and sent it to the National Assembly for approval. President Tinubu needs to back-up this laudable commitment by fixing a date for the conduct of the Census in 2024 and timely release the funds to enable the National Population Commission prepare and get Nigerians ready to participate in the census exercise. The earlier the presidential proclamation for the next census is made, the better for the country as donor partners that normally contribute almost half of the census budget need to include it in their 2024 budgets. They can’t budget for the funds to support the census without securing a serious commitment from the Federal Government in terms of fixing a census date and timely release of funds for the census exercise.

Further delay in conducting the forthcoming census beyond 2024 will be a massive loss to the nation in terms of huge investments already made by the government and the uncommon achievements recorded in preparations for the census exercise.

So, the right time for Mr. President to act is now. History beckons on him to break the jinx of previous unsuccessful attempts to conduct the long-awaited next census and also, enact a law to make the decennial conduct of census mandatory in order to end the irregular censuses in Nigeria.

To build a great Nigeria on census data is the right way to go in renewing the hope of Nigerians. Happy New Year to Nigerians.

~©️Stanley O. Nwosu, a Public Affairs Analyst, Political Economist and Development Expert is the NPC Social Media and Website Manager in Abuja.

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Business

Turning Africa’s Raw Materials Into Wealth: The ARMS 2026 Industrial Agenda

Published

4 days ago

September 29, 2026

The Gleamer

By Joel Ajayi

For decades, Africa’s vast natural resources have powered industries and economies far beyond the continent, while many African countries have remained largely exporters of unprocessed commodities and importers of finished products.

That familiar pattern is now coming under renewed scrutiny as policymakers, researchers, investors and industrialists seek to change the direction of Africa’s resource economy.

At the centre of that conversation is the second edition of the Africa Raw Materials Summit (ARMS 2026), scheduled for October 19 and 20 at the Abuja Continental Hotel, Abuja, under the theme: “From African Feedstock to African Factories.”

Organised by the Raw Materials Research and Development Council (RMRDC), the summit is being positioned as more than another gathering of policymakers and industry stakeholders. It is intended to provide a platform for confronting the structural challenges that have kept African raw materials largely disconnected from local manufacturing.

Africa has for years operated largely within a “pit-to-port” economic model, exporting raw materials while importing expensive finished products.

Speaking at a press conference ahead of the summit on Tuesday in Abuja, the Director-General and Chief Executive Officer of RMRDC, Prof. Nnanyelugo Martin Ike-Muonso, said the event would bring together policymakers, investors, researchers, technology providers and industrialists to develop practical strategies for transforming Africa’s abundant natural resources into industrial wealth.

The challenge, therefore, is not simply the abundance of resources, but the continent’s ability to transform those resources into industrial value, employment, technology and wealth within Africa.

Nigeria alone, according to the RMRDC, has more than $582.4 billion in documented non-renewable natural resources, while the wider continent possesses substantial deposits of critical minerals, agricultural raw materials and industrial feedstock.

Yet, the benefits of this resource endowment have often been constrained by inadequate processing capacity, weak infrastructure, limited technology, financing gaps and fragmented regional value chains.

From Dialogue to Industrial Action

ARMS 2026 builds on the maiden edition held in May 2025, which attracted more than 1,000 delegates from across the world.

The inaugural summit also witnessed the unveiling of the Ten-Year Raw Materials Transformation Roadmap (2025–2034) by the Minister of State for Industry, Senator John Owen Enoh.

The roadmap was designed around areas including technological capability, climate-resilient processing and backward integration, establishing a policy framework for greater domestic utilisation of Africa’s raw materials.

The second edition is expected to move the conversation further by bringing policy, capital, technology and industrial stakeholders around practical mechanisms for turning raw materials into locally manufactured products.

One of the major proposals highlighted by the RMRDC is the 30 per cent Mandatory Value Addition Bill, which seeks to establish a statutory minimum level of value addition to Nigerian raw materials before export.

The Council says the proposed framework could support job creation, import substitution, foreign-exchange conservation and increased manufacturing contribution to the economy.

Building the Infrastructure for Value Addition

The industrial transformation envisaged by ARMS 2026 goes beyond legislation.

A major concern is the “missing middle” between where raw materials are produced and where factories are located.

Poor transportation networks, inadequate cold-chain facilities, weak rural roads, limited testing and certification infrastructure and border-related delays can make locally sourced materials more expensive and less competitive.

Consequently, logistics and infrastructure constitute one of the five principal pillars of the summit.

The objective is to develop more reliable corridors connecting farms and mines with processing centres and manufacturing facilities, thereby reducing losses and improving the movement of industrial inputs.

The Digital Dimension

Technology is also becoming an important part of the Council’s strategy.

The RMRDC says it has developed the Nigeria Integrated Information Statistical System for Raw Materials and Products (NISSRAMP), described as a digital repository containing information on feedstock deposits, specifications, production outputs and industrial absorption rates.

The Council has also highlighted its transition towards paperless operations and its certification as a Data Controller/Processor of Major Importance by the Nigeria Data Protection Commission.

Such digital infrastructure could provide investors and manufacturers with better information about the availability and characteristics of raw materials while supporting more informed industrial planning.

Turning Waste Into Industrial Inputs

Another major component of ARMS 2026 is the proposed expansion of the circular economy.

The summit will examine how agricultural by-products, mine tailings, scrap metals and biomass can be recovered and reused as inputs for new production processes rather than being treated simply as waste.

The RMRDC argues that such an approach could lower raw-material costs while supporting more sustainable and climate-resilient manufacturing systems.

For Africa, where industrial expansion must increasingly balance economic development with environmental considerations, waste industrialisation could become an important part of the continent’s manufacturing conversation.

From National Production to African Value Chains

The African Continental Free Trade Area is another important element of the summit’s agenda.

The RMRDC sees AfCFTA as an opportunity to create regional value chains in which raw materials sourced in one African country can be processed and supplied to manufacturers in another.

Under such a model, Africa would move beyond simply exporting commodities to external markets and develop stronger internal networks for supplying chemicals, refined minerals, agricultural inputs and other industrial materials across national borders.

This approach places regional integration at the heart of Africa’s industrialisation strategy.

Bridging Research and Capital

A recurring weakness in many developing economies is the gap between research and commercialisation.

Innovations may emerge from universities, research institutions and laboratories without receiving the financing, equipment or market connections required to become commercially viable.

ARMS 2026 intends to address that gap through technology commercialisation and capital linkages, connecting research outputs with investors, development finance institutions and industrial off-takers.

The RMRDC has also cited partnerships with the Bank of Industry for commercial-scale post-harvest processing and a South-South technology-transfer partnership with the National Innovation Centre par Excellence in Shanghai, China.

A Larger Industrial Conversation

The scale of ARMS 2026 is expected to be significantly larger than the maiden edition.

The organisers project more than 1,800 delegates from all 54 African countries and global industrial partners.

The programme will feature high-level policy dialogues, technical panels, an advanced raw materials and technology exhibition, industrial site visits and the African Raw Materials Industry Awards.

The exhibition, in particular, is expected to showcase locally fabricated processing machinery, advanced domestic materials, green chemicals and engineered commercial inputs.

Beyond the speeches and exhibitions, however, the real significance of ARMS 2026 will ultimately depend on what happens after the summit.

Africa’s challenge has never been a shortage of raw materials. The more difficult question has been how to transform those resources into factories, products, skilled employment, technology and sustainable economic opportunities.

For Nigeria and the rest of the continent, the proposed shift from “pit-to-port” to “feedstock-to-factory” therefore represents a broader debate about the future structure of African economies.

ARMS 2026 seeks to place that debate firmly on the industrial agenda — with value addition, technology, finance, infrastructure, circular production and regional trade at the centre.

If the commitments and partnerships generated by the summit translate into measurable industrial activity, the event could provide another platform for Africa to examine how its enormous resource base can support stronger domestic manufacturing.

The message from the organisers is clear: the continent’s raw materials should not only leave African soil as commodities; they should increasingly become the foundation for African industrial production

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