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Bombshell.. Obasanjo Writes Buhari, Warns Against Avoidable Calamities

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Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has again written an open letter to President Muhammadu Buhari on the worsening security situation in the country while also offering suggestions on what can be done to control the situation.

The letter released by his Special Assistant on Media, Kehinde Akinyemi on Monday July 15, 2019 addressed comprehensively the insecurity situations across the land while also detailing the agitations of other ethnic groups in the country.

The former  President warned that failure to addressed these issues may lead o what happened in Yugoslavia where suspicions gave room to fear among the ethnic groups.

He however added that the country’s diversity, which he described as our greatest asset, should be taken as an opportunity for our unity and not a reason to divide us as a nation or bring about insecurity. He therefore warned against what he called avoidable calamities.

According to him:” To be explicit and without equivocation, Mr. President and General, I am deeply worried about four avoidable calamities:

  1. abandoning Nigeria into the hands of criminals who are all being suspected, rightly or wrongly, as Fulanis and terrorists of Boko Haram type;
  2. spontaneous or planned reprisal attacks against Fulanis which may inadvertently or advertently mushroom into pogrom or Rwanda-type genocide that we did not believe could happen and yet it happened.
  3. similar attacks against any other tribe or ethnic group anywhere in the country initiated by rumours, fears, intimidation and revenge capable of leading to pogrom;
  4. violent uprising beginning from one section of the country and spreading quickly to other areas and leading to dismemberment of the country.

It happened to Yugoslavia not too long ago. If we do not act now, one or all of these scenarios may happen. We must pray and take effective actions at the same time. The initiative is in the hands of the President of the nation, but he cannot do it alone. In my part of the world, if you are sharpening your cutlass and a mad man comes from behind to take the cutlass from you, you need other people’s assistance to have your cutlass back without being harmed. The mad men with serious criminal intent and terrorism as core value have taken cutlass of security. The need for assistance to regain control is obviously compelling and must be embraced now.”

Read details of the letter below:

Dear President and General Buhari,

OPEN LETTER TO PRESIDENT, GENERAL MUHAMMADU BUHARI

I am constrained to write to you this open letter. I decided to make it an open letter because the issue is very weighty and must be greatly worrisome to all concerned Nigerians and that means all right-thinking Nigerians and those resident in Nigeria. Since the issue is of momentous concern to all well-meaning and all right-thinking Nigerians, it must be of great concern to you, and collective thinking and dialoguing is the best way of finding an appropriate and adequate solution to the problem. The contents of this letter, therefore, should be available to all those who can help in proffering effective solutions for the problem of insecurity in the land.

One of the spin offs and accelerants is the misinformation and disinformation through the use of fake news. A number of articles, in recent days, have been attributed to me by some people who I believe may be seeking added credence and an attentive audience for their opinions and view-points. As you know very well, I will always boldly own what I say and disown what is put into my mouth. But the issue I am addressing here is very serious; it is the issue of life and death for all of us and for our dear country, Nigeria. This issue can no longer be ignored, treated with nonchalance, swept under the carpet or treated with cuddling glove. The issue is hitting at the foundation of our existence as Nigerians and fast eroding the root of our Nigerian community. I am very much worried and afraid that we are on the precipice and dangerously reaching a tipping point where it may no longer be possible to hold danger at bay. Without being immodest, as a Nigerian who still bears the scar of the Nigerian civil war on my body and with a son who bears the scar of fighting Boko Haram on his body, you can understand, I hope, why I am so concerned. When people are desperate and feel that they cannot have confidence in the ability of government to provide security for their lives and properties, they will take recourse to anything and everything that can guarantee their security individually and collectively.

For over ten years, for four of which you have been the captain of the ship, Boko Haram has menacingly ravaged the land and in spite of government’s claim of victory over Boko Haram, the potency and the activities of Boko Haram, where they are active, remain undiminished, putting lie to government’s claim. The recent explanation of the Chief of Army Staff for non-victory due to lack of commitment and lack of motivation on the part of troops bordering on sabotage speaks for itself. Say what you will, Boko Haram is still a daily issue of insecurity for those who are victimised, killed, maimed, kidnapped, raped, sold into slavery and forced into marriage and for children forcibly recruited into carrying bombs on them to detonate among crowds of people to cause maximum destruction and damage. And Boko Haram will not go away on the basis of sticks alone, carrots must over weigh sticks. How else do you deal with issues such as only about 50% literacy in North-East with over 70% unemployment?

Herdsmen/farmers crises and menace started with government treating the issue with cuddling glove instead of hammer. It has festered and spread. Today, it has developed into banditry, kidnapping, armed robbery and killings all over the country. The unfortunate situation is that the criminality is being perceived as a ‘Fulani’ menace unleashed by Fulani elite in the different parts of the country for a number of reasons but even more unfortunately, many Nigerians and non-Nigerians who are friends of Nigeria attach vicarious responsibility to you as a Fulani elite and the current captain of the Nigeria ship. Perception may be as potent as reality at times. Whatever may be the grievances of Fulanis, if any, they need to be put out in the open and their grievances, if legitimate, be addressed; and if other ethnic groups have grievances, let them also be brought out in the open and addressed through debate and dialogue.

The main issue, if I may dare say, is poor management or mismanagement of diversity which, on the other hand, is one of our greatest and most important assets. As a result, very onerous cloud is gathering. And rain of destruction, violence, disaster and disunity can only be the outcome. Nothing should be taken for granted, the clock is ticking with the cacophony of dissatisfaction and disaffection everywhere in and outside the country. The Presidency and the Congress in the US have signalled to us to put our house in order. The House of Lords in the UK had debated the Nigerian security situation. We must understand and appreciate the significance, implication and likely consequences of such concerns and deliberations.

No one can stop hate speech, violent agitation and smouldering violent agitation if he fans the embers of hatred, disaffection and violence. It will continue to snowball until it is out of control. A stich in time saves nine, goes the old wise saying.

With the death of Funke, Chief Fasoranti’s daughter, some sympathetic Nigerian groups are saying “enough is enough”. Prof. Anya, a distinguished Nigerian merit Laureate, has this to say “We can no longer say with certainty that we have a nation”. Niger-Delta leaders, South-Eastern leaders, Middle-Belt leaders and Northern Elders Forum have not remained quiet. Different ordinary Nigerians at home and abroad are calling for different measures to address or ameliorate the situation. All the calls and cries can only continue to be ignored at the expense of Nigerian unity, if not its continued existence.

To be explicit and without equivocation, Mr. President and General, I am deeply worried about four avoidable calamities:

  1. abandoning Nigeria into the hands of criminals who are all being suspected, rightly or wrongly, as Fulanis and terrorists of Boko Haram type;
  2. spontaneous or planned reprisal attacks against Fulanis which may inadvertently or advertently mushroom into pogrom or Rwanda-type genocide that we did not believe could happen and yet it happened.
  3. similar attacks against any other tribe or ethnic group anywhere in the country initiated by rumours, fears, intimidation and revenge capable of leading to pogrom;
  4. violent uprising beginning from one section of the country and spreading quickly to other areas and leading to dismemberment of the country.

It happened to Yugoslavia not too long ago. If we do not act now, one or all of these scenarios may happen. We must pray and take effective actions at the same time. The initiative is in the hands of the President of the nation, but he cannot do it alone. In my part of the world, if you are sharpening your cutlass and a mad man comes from behind to take the cutlass from you, you need other people’s assistance to have your cutlass back without being harmed. The mad men with serious criminal intent and terrorism as core value have taken cutlass of security. The need for assistance to regain control is obviously compelling and must be embraced now.

A couple of weeks ago at a public lecture, I had said, among other things, that:

“In all these issues of mobilisation for national unity, stability, security, cooperation, development, growth and progress, there is no consensus. Like in the issue of security, government should open up discussion, debate and dialogue as part of consultation at different levels and the outcome of such deliberations should be collated to form inputs into a national conference to come up with the solution that will effectively deal with the issues and lead to rapid development, growth and progress which will give us a wholesome society and enhanced living standard and livelihood in an inclusive and shared society. It will be a national programme. We need unity of purpose and nationally accepted strategic road map that will not change with whims and caprices of any government. It must be owned by the citizens, people’s policy and strategy implemented by the government no matter its colour and leaning.

Some of the groups that I will suggest to be contacted are: traditional rulers, past heads of service (no matter how competent or incompetent they have been and how much they have contributed to the mess we are in), past heads of para-military organisations, private sector, civil society, community leaders particularly in the most affected areas, present and past governors, present and past local government leaders, religious leaders, past Heads of State, past intelligence chiefs, past Heads of Civil Service and relevant current and retired diplomats, members of opposition and any groups that may be deemed relevant.”

The President must be seen to be addressing this issue with utmost seriousness and with maximum dispatch and getting all hands on deck to help. If there is failure, the principal responsibility will be that of the President and no one else. We need cohesion and concentration of effort and maximum force – political, economic, social, psychological and military – to deal successfully with the menace of criminality and terrorism separately and together. Blame game among own forces must be avoided. It is debilitating and only helpful to our adversary. We cannot dither anymore. It is time to confront this threat headlong and in a manner that is holistic, inclusive and purposeful.

For the sake of Nigeria and Nigerians, I pray that God may grant you, as our President, the wisdom, the understanding, the political will and the courage to do what is right when it is right and without fear or favour. May God save, secure, protect and bless Nigeria. May He open to us a window of opportunity that we can still use to prevent the worst happening. As we say in my village, “May God forbid bad thing”.

OLUSEGUN OBASANJO
July 15, 2019

Released by
Kehinde Akinyemi
Special Assistant Media.

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Presidency Refutes Afenifere’s Deceitful Statement on President Bola Tinubu’s Midterm:

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Chief Sunday Dare

The statement from a factional Afenifere group raises serious concerns about a penchant and deliberate attempt to find faults and trade in deceit instead of objectivity. The group has found it challenging to accept that under the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s comeback story is firmly underway.

The rebellious Afenifere claims that President Bola Tinubu’s administration’s performance over the past two years has witnessed a regression in human development, economic mismanagement, and democratic backsliding.

This is a jaundiced view, echoing the view of opposition politicians, one of whom the group supported in the 2023 election.

A balanced assessment based on available data reveals a more objective and progressive picture, with significant achievements amid the challenges expected from a country like Nigeria with decades-old problems.

Beyond its confounding conclusions based on prejudice, the statement raises the following issues. With the ensuing point-by-point clarification, it will become clear that the group’s position is neither grounded in facts nor logic.

  1. Economic Reforms and Their Impact

The factional Afenifere’s claim that Tinubu’s economic reforms, particularly the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira, have led to “unmitigated sufferings” and “economic deforms” seeks to draw attention to some of the challenges but overlooks the macroeconomic gains. The removal of the fuel subsidy, announced on May 29, 2023, saved the government over $10 billion in 2023 alone, reducing fiscal strain and redirecting funds to other sectors. Unifying the foreign exchange market and the naira’s floatation aimed to address distortions in the currency market, boosted foreign reserves to $38.1 billion by 2024 and achieved a trade surplus of N18.86 trillion for the country.

Under the Tinubu administration, Nigeria’s annual inflation rate fell to 23.71% in April 2025 from 24.23% in the prior month. Food inflation, the most significant component of the inflation basket, remained elevated but moderated to 21.26% from 21.79%

While these figures indicate stabilisation, the immediate impact on ordinary Nigerians is not lost. The government’s cash transfer programme, which provides funds to the poorest households and benefits over 5.7 million households, is a credible outreach.

However, dismissing the twin policies as “unforced errors” ignores the unsustainable nature of the previous subsidy regime and multiple exchange rate systems, which were draining public finances. A more balanced critique would acknowledge the necessity of reform while emphasising the need for better-targeted social safety nets.

As of today, the Tinubu administration has recorded over 900,000 beneficiaries of the Presidential Loan and Grant Scheme, over 600,000 beneficiaries of the Students’ Loan Scheme, NELFUND, N70,000 minimum wage, NYSC monthly stipend increase from N33,000 to N77,000, Free CNG kits distributed to thousands of commercial drivers across Nigeria with CNG buses rolled out in partnership with state governments, leading to a significant drop in transport costs. The administration also recorded over $10 Billion FX debt cleared, Federal account allocation to states growing by 60%, enabling more local development projects, N50 billion released to end the perennial ASUU strikes, and over 1,000 PHCs revitalised nationwide with an additional 5,500 undergoing upgrades.

The administration also disbursed N75 Billion in palliative funds to states and LGs for food distribution and cash transfers, over 150,000 youths are being trained in software development, tech support and data analysis under the 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) project, over 20,000 affordable housing units under construction under the renewed Hope cities program launched across Nigeria, N200 Billion in Loans to farmers and agro-processors. Other gains: over two million Nigerians are now connected to new digital infrastructure and community broadband hubs and public WiFi projects, 3.84% GDP growth in Q4 2024 (highest in 3 years), over $50 Billion in new FDI Commitments, Net Foreign Exchange Reserves up from $3.99 Billion (2023) to $23.11 Billion (2024), over $8 Billion in new oil and gas investments unlocked, and over $800 million realised in processing investments in solid minerals in 2024 and inflation as at April was down to 23.17%.

It is now pertinent to inquire from opposition leaders about alternative strategies they would propose in contrast to this administration’s extensive list of significant achievements currently benefiting Nigerians in real-time.

  1. Cost of Governance and the Oronsaye Report

The assertion that the Tinubu administration has failed to implement the Oronsaye Report and instead increased governance costs is inaccurate. The Oronsaye Report, which recommends the merger or scrapping of government agencies to reduce expenditure, has not been fully implemented and has drawn criticisms; it must be noted, however, that the administration has made some efforts to improve fiscal discipline. The fiscal deficit was reduced from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024, and the debt service-to-revenue ratio dropped from nearly 100% in 2022 to under 40% by 2024. The government also recorded over N6 trillion in revenue in Q1 2025, partly due to removing Ways & Means financing and fuel subsidies. These steps demonstrate fiscal prudence and will eventually translate into immediate, tangible relief for citizens. The administration is working earnestly to address these optics and prioritise cost-cutting measures, including implementing the Oronsaye Report, to restore public trust.

  1. Allegations of Prebendalism and Corruption

Afenifere’s claim that the administration favours “the privileged and connected” through corrupt palliative distribution and mega-project allocations is questionable. Reports of palliatives being mismanaged or distributed through unverified channels have no doubt surfaced, raising concerns about transparency.

The administration has taken steps against corruption, such as suspending Humanitarian Affairs Minister Betta Edu in January 2024 over alleged fund diversion, signalling some commitment to accountability. Critics may argue that more systemic action is needed, but dismissing all the efforts as propaganda overlooks these initial steps.

Without abusing Presidential powers, the administration is working on expediting action on all pending investigations and prosecution of corrupt practices. At the same time, critical agencies are collating credible evidence on ongoing corruption litigations. It must, however, be noted that in 2024, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) secured a record-breaking 4,111 convictions, marking its most successful year since its inception. They recovered over N364 billion and significant amounts in foreign currencies, including $214.5 Million, $54,318.64, and 31,265 Euros.

The EFCC achieved its single most significant asset recovery in 2025, with the final forfeiture of an Abuja estate measuring 150,500 square meters and containing 725 units of duplexes and other apartments. The EFCC concluded the final forfeiture and handed the estate to the Ministry of Housing in May 2025.

  1. Democratic Concerns and Centralisation

Afenifere’s accusation that the Tinubu administration is pursuing a “one-party state totalitarianism” and undermining democratic institutions is unsupported and lacks merit. The claim of neutralising the legislature and judiciary is also a false alarm.

The public should note that the Supreme Court has upheld opposition victories in states like Kano, Plateau, and Abia, suggesting judicial independence. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has faced criticism for allegedly appointing individuals said to be ruling party affiliates, but no evidence confirms these appointees are card-carrying APC members.

The allegation that the Tinubu government cracks down on peaceful protesters is primarily unfounded. It is a regurgitated rhetoric deployed under previous administrations as a reflection of broader challenges in Nigeria’s democratic culture.

The issue of the State Police is more complex than the oversimplified approach of the factional Afenifere’s statement. Every administration policy is subject to security impact assessment before implementation, and there is a difference between the State Police being widely advocated and a Police State that critics may blame the Federal Government for if implemented without caution.

  1. Security and Social Welfare

Contrary to the impression created, the administration’s security record is impressive. Over 13,500 terrorists, bandits, and insurgents have been neutralised and 7,000 arrested in the past year, though there is still some news of abductions and violent attacks. The administration’s proactive response to security-related matters has paved the way for more farmers to return to their farms, impacting food production and supply.

The administration also embarked on agricultural initiatives, including tractor procurement, fertiliser distribution, and increased mechanisation.

The government has also not relented on its Regional Development drive as the administration succeeded in establishing Development Commissions across 6 Geopolitical zones (South West, North West, North Central. North East, South East and the Niger Delta) to empower communities and accelerate developments.

  1. Political Climate and 2027 Elections
    The claims of government-sponsored conflicts within opposition parties lack concrete evidence and should be ignored.

Economic reforms are undoubtedly laying the foundation for long-term stability, with GDP growth at 4.6% in Q4 2024 and a Fitch B credit rating upgrade as evidence. Moody’s Investors Service’s latest upgrade of Nigeria’s rating from Caa1 to B3, with a Stable Outlook, indicates that the Tinubu administration is on the right path.

The government is not oblivious to some discontent and difficult times among Nigerians. There is an urgency to deliver more tangible results, which is guaranteed given the impressive performance of the administration in just two years.

Afenifere’s statement saw the cup as half empty. On the contrary, it’s half full. Under President Tinubu’s administration, some of Nigeria’s hydra-headed problems are being tackled headlong.

The administration has achieved fiscal improvements, such as reduced deficits and increased revenues, which will eventually translate into meaningful microeconomic relief for most Nigerians in the short term, even as the government moves to address these issues with greater empathy and transparency.

The administration’s demonstrable priorities are securing the nation, fixing the economy, and improving human capital development.

Responsible citizens and political leaders must work collaboratively with the administration to address the challenges and counter disinformation, as highlighted in the admonition against fake news and deceptive AI videos.

Under President Tinubu’s leadership, Nigeria is turning the corner. From stabilising the naira and curbing inflation to reducing debt burdens and

expanding access to education and health, the administration delivers bold reforms with actual results. With improved security, regional inclusion, anti-corruption measures, and institutional rebuilding, Nigeria’s comeback story is not yet complete — but it is firmly underway.

– Sunday Dare is the Special Adviser to Mr. President on Media and Public Communications.

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