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API: Citizen’s Trust on President, NASS, Judiciary Others Erodes, As Social Cohesion Index Stalls at 46.8%

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Joel Ajayi 


Africa Polling Institute (API), an independent, non-profit and non-partisan opinion research think-tank, has released its 2025 Nigeria Social Cohesion Survey report.


The report launched at a national dialogue in Abuja on Thursday, 03 July 2025, has computed the Nigeria Social Cohesion Index (NSCI) as 46.8%. This index is below the average score of 50 percentage points, and indicates a weak state of social cohesion in Nigeria. 


The survey findings report growing citizens distrust and low public confidence in the government and public institutions. Specifically, 83% of Nigerians expressed little to no trust in the government of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu; and 82% expressed the same sentiments in the National Assembly under the leadership of Senate President, Dr. Godswill Akpabio and House of Representatives Speaker, Rt. Hon. Tajudeen Abass.

Also, 79% said they have little to no trust in the judiciary, under the leadership of the erstwhile CJN, Justice Kayode Ariwoola, and the current one, Justice Kudirat Kekere-Ekun. In comparison with previous editions (2019, 2021 and 2022), the data reveals that citizens trust and public confidence are currently at their lowest ebb. 


In addition, the survey found that Nigerians now seem to be united in shared struggle, especially as it pertains to their everyday lives, and the negative impact of the current economic realities. It is not uncommon to hear citizens constantly alluding to the economic hardship, high costs of transport, and goods and services, as well as the lack of economic prosperity under the “Tinubu economy.” 


Africa Polling Institute (API), with the support of Ford Foundation, conducted a nationwide Citizens Perception Survey (CPS) to measure the state of social cohesion in Nigeria, between the months of January and February 2025. A total of 5,465 interviews were completed via Face-to-face Household visits, using the Stratified Random Sampling technique; with citizens aged 15 years and above.

The interviews were conducted in five major languages: English, Pidgin, Hausa, Igbo and Yoruba; and geographic quotas were assigned to ensure that all States and Senatorial District were proportionately represented in the sample.


The concept of social cohesion refers to the willingness of citizens of a country to cooperate and work together towards ensuring the survival and prosperity of the country. Drawing from the literature, and building upon the 2019, 2021, and 2022 rounds of surveys, 14 indicators were instrumentalized to measure social cohesion in Nigeria – Identity; Trust; Social Justice and Equity; Civic Participation; Tolerance; Gender Equity; Disability and Inclusion, Impunity; Corruption; Natural Resource Governance; Polarization; Security and Peacebuilding; Coping Strategies; Migration; Self-worth and Future Expectations. Overall, the results of the 2025 Nigeria Social Cohesion Survey and the Nigeria Social Cohesion Index, was computed at a score of 46.8%, suggesting that Nigeria still falls below the average (50%) threshold of a socially cohesive country. Key Findings from the 2025.

Survey‘Identity’ IndicatorThe survey revealed that 53% of Nigerians “feel disappointed in Nigeria”, compared to 33% who feel truly proud of the country; while 12% feel indifferent. Also, 48% of Nigerians are proud of being equally Nigerian and from their ethnic group; while 27% identify more with their ethnicity than with being Nigerian, compared to only 11% feel more Nigerian than ethnic. 


‘Trust Indicator’The survey reported that 83% of Nigerians expressed little to No trust in the government of President Bola Tinubu. Specifically, 53% expressed no trust at all in the administration, while 30% expressed little trust. Similarly, 82% expressed little to no trust in the National Assembly, under the leadership of Senate President, Dr. Godswill Akpabio and House of Representatives Speaker, Rt. Hon. Tajudeen Abass. 


Also, 79% expressed little to no trust in the judiciary, under the leadership of the erstwhile CJN, Justice Kayode Ariwoola, and the current one, Justice Kudirat Kekere-Ekun. 


‘Civic Participation and Patriotism’ Indicator 68% of citizens are “Extremely or Somewhat Willing” to sacrifice or give up something of interest for the collective good of the nation; 79% are “Extremely or Somewhat Willing” to cooperate with fellow citizens from other ethnic groups to make Nigeria more united; and 76% are “Extremely or Somewhat Willing” to participate in the political process to make Nigeria a better place for all. 


Also, 91% expressed their willingness to support inter-ethnic marriages versus 64% who expressed support for inter-religious marriages.‘Corruption’ IndicatorAlmost 6 in 10 citizens (61%) believe that the level of corruption has increased significantly in the past year, while 64% assessed the government’s efforts at tackling corruption “Poorly”. ‘Gender Equity’ Indicator 7 in 10 Nigerians (71%) agrees that women should be allowed to lead in politics, corporate entities and religious organizations; and 73% agree that women should be given equal entitlement to family inheritances. 


Another 73% believe women who marry into other states should be allowed to have equal opportunity in their husband’s state. Also, 39% rated government’s effort at promoting gender equity as “Poor”; as against about a third (33%) who rate government “Fair”, and 28% who rated them positively. Furthermore, 63% said they would vote for a Woman as President of Nigeria, 69% would vote a Woman as State Governor, and 76% would vote for a Woman as Local Government Chairperson.


‘Self-Worth and Future Expectation’ IndicatorRegarding self-worth, 59% of Nigerians feel “Extremely or Somewhat Dissatisfied” about their lives as Nigerians right now; while 53% would consider relocating abroad with family members if offered the opportunity. Also, 56% of citizens believe that the future of the country would be much better than it is presently; compared to 26% who expressed pessimism that the future would be much worse.


Recommendations: API reiterates the need for a National Cohesion Commission with the crucial responsibility for ensuring that policies, programmes, and activities of government are targeted at promoting unity and trust, creating a sense of belonging, fostering inclusive governance, providing hope for a brighter future and continuously offering citizens opportunities for upward mobility. 


The Federal Government needs to forge a new social contract with Nigerians, one that clearly spells out the benefits of citizenship and the responsibility of the state towards citizens and vice versa. 


Unlike Section 2 of Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution, as amended, which enshrines the rights of citizens and affirms the democratic values of human dignity, equality and freedom, yet remains non-justiciable.

The new social contract should be clear seen as putting Nigerians first, not just in words, but also in action. Nigeria is also in need of a new shared vision and national identity, one that emphasizes the country’s uniqueness, its strength in population and diversity; where citizens are all equal before the law and the country works for the good of all. Consequently, institutions such as the Federal Ministry of Information and Culture, National Orientation Agency (NOA), Nigeria Television Authority (NTA), Federal Character Commission and their affiliates have an increasing role to play, in shaping and amplifying narratives that help to promote social cohesion, inclusion and unity.CSOs contributions to social cohesion in Nigeria is imperative and viable because they possess the understanding, capacity and technical know-how to respond to societal issues and facilitate peaceful co-existence of the people which will help to rekindle public trust for civil authorities.


Finally, citizens are encouraged to participate in community dialogues, civil engagements and initiatives that promote cohesion and discuss the type Nigeria they would love to have; especially ideas and insights on how to build a more enduring, prosperous, and egalitarian society.

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Turning Africa’s Raw Materials Into Wealth: The ARMS 2026 Industrial Agenda

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By Joel Ajayi

For decades, Africa’s vast natural resources have powered industries and economies far beyond the continent, while many African countries have remained largely exporters of unprocessed commodities and importers of finished products.

That familiar pattern is now coming under renewed scrutiny as policymakers, researchers, investors and industrialists seek to change the direction of Africa’s resource economy.

At the centre of that conversation is the second edition of the Africa Raw Materials Summit (ARMS 2026), scheduled for October 19 and 20 at the Abuja Continental Hotel, Abuja, under the theme: “From African Feedstock to African Factories.”

Organised by the Raw Materials Research and Development Council (RMRDC), the summit is being positioned as more than another gathering of policymakers and industry stakeholders. It is intended to provide a platform for confronting the structural challenges that have kept African raw materials largely disconnected from local manufacturing.

Africa has for years operated largely within a “pit-to-port” economic model, exporting raw materials while importing expensive finished products.

Speaking at a press conference ahead of the summit on Tuesday in Abuja, the Director-General and Chief Executive Officer of RMRDC, Prof. Nnanyelugo Martin Ike-Muonso, said the event would bring together policymakers, investors, researchers, technology providers and industrialists to develop practical strategies for transforming Africa’s abundant natural resources into industrial wealth.

The challenge, therefore, is not simply the abundance of resources, but the continent’s ability to transform those resources into industrial value, employment, technology and wealth within Africa.

Nigeria alone, according to the RMRDC, has more than $582.4 billion in documented non-renewable natural resources, while the wider continent possesses substantial deposits of critical minerals, agricultural raw materials and industrial feedstock.

Yet, the benefits of this resource endowment have often been constrained by inadequate processing capacity, weak infrastructure, limited technology, financing gaps and fragmented regional value chains.

From Dialogue to Industrial Action

ARMS 2026 builds on the maiden edition held in May 2025, which attracted more than 1,000 delegates from across the world.

The inaugural summit also witnessed the unveiling of the Ten-Year Raw Materials Transformation Roadmap (2025–2034) by the Minister of State for Industry, Senator John Owen Enoh.

The roadmap was designed around areas including technological capability, climate-resilient processing and backward integration, establishing a policy framework for greater domestic utilisation of Africa’s raw materials.

The second edition is expected to move the conversation further by bringing policy, capital, technology and industrial stakeholders around practical mechanisms for turning raw materials into locally manufactured products.

One of the major proposals highlighted by the RMRDC is the 30 per cent Mandatory Value Addition Bill, which seeks to establish a statutory minimum level of value addition to Nigerian raw materials before export.

The Council says the proposed framework could support job creation, import substitution, foreign-exchange conservation and increased manufacturing contribution to the economy.

Building the Infrastructure for Value Addition

The industrial transformation envisaged by ARMS 2026 goes beyond legislation.

A major concern is the “missing middle” between where raw materials are produced and where factories are located.

Poor transportation networks, inadequate cold-chain facilities, weak rural roads, limited testing and certification infrastructure and border-related delays can make locally sourced materials more expensive and less competitive.

Consequently, logistics and infrastructure constitute one of the five principal pillars of the summit.

The objective is to develop more reliable corridors connecting farms and mines with processing centres and manufacturing facilities, thereby reducing losses and improving the movement of industrial inputs.

The Digital Dimension

Technology is also becoming an important part of the Council’s strategy.

The RMRDC says it has developed the Nigeria Integrated Information Statistical System for Raw Materials and Products (NISSRAMP), described as a digital repository containing information on feedstock deposits, specifications, production outputs and industrial absorption rates.

The Council has also highlighted its transition towards paperless operations and its certification as a Data Controller/Processor of Major Importance by the Nigeria Data Protection Commission.

Such digital infrastructure could provide investors and manufacturers with better information about the availability and characteristics of raw materials while supporting more informed industrial planning.

Turning Waste Into Industrial Inputs

Another major component of ARMS 2026 is the proposed expansion of the circular economy.

The summit will examine how agricultural by-products, mine tailings, scrap metals and biomass can be recovered and reused as inputs for new production processes rather than being treated simply as waste.

The RMRDC argues that such an approach could lower raw-material costs while supporting more sustainable and climate-resilient manufacturing systems.

For Africa, where industrial expansion must increasingly balance economic development with environmental considerations, waste industrialisation could become an important part of the continent’s manufacturing conversation.

From National Production to African Value Chains

The African Continental Free Trade Area is another important element of the summit’s agenda.

The RMRDC sees AfCFTA as an opportunity to create regional value chains in which raw materials sourced in one African country can be processed and supplied to manufacturers in another.

Under such a model, Africa would move beyond simply exporting commodities to external markets and develop stronger internal networks for supplying chemicals, refined minerals, agricultural inputs and other industrial materials across national borders.

This approach places regional integration at the heart of Africa’s industrialisation strategy.

Bridging Research and Capital

A recurring weakness in many developing economies is the gap between research and commercialisation.

Innovations may emerge from universities, research institutions and laboratories without receiving the financing, equipment or market connections required to become commercially viable.

ARMS 2026 intends to address that gap through technology commercialisation and capital linkages, connecting research outputs with investors, development finance institutions and industrial off-takers.

The RMRDC has also cited partnerships with the Bank of Industry for commercial-scale post-harvest processing and a South-South technology-transfer partnership with the National Innovation Centre par Excellence in Shanghai, China.

A Larger Industrial Conversation

The scale of ARMS 2026 is expected to be significantly larger than the maiden edition.

The organisers project more than 1,800 delegates from all 54 African countries and global industrial partners.

The programme will feature high-level policy dialogues, technical panels, an advanced raw materials and technology exhibition, industrial site visits and the African Raw Materials Industry Awards.

The exhibition, in particular, is expected to showcase locally fabricated processing machinery, advanced domestic materials, green chemicals and engineered commercial inputs.

Beyond the speeches and exhibitions, however, the real significance of ARMS 2026 will ultimately depend on what happens after the summit.

Africa’s challenge has never been a shortage of raw materials. The more difficult question has been how to transform those resources into factories, products, skilled employment, technology and sustainable economic opportunities.

For Nigeria and the rest of the continent, the proposed shift from “pit-to-port” to “feedstock-to-factory” therefore represents a broader debate about the future structure of African economies.

ARMS 2026 seeks to place that debate firmly on the industrial agenda — with value addition, technology, finance, infrastructure, circular production and regional trade at the centre.

If the commitments and partnerships generated by the summit translate into measurable industrial activity, the event could provide another platform for Africa to examine how its enormous resource base can support stronger domestic manufacturing.

The message from the organisers is clear: the continent’s raw materials should not only leave African soil as commodities; they should increasingly become the foundation for African industrial production

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