The Executive Director of Africa Polling Institute (API), Professor Bell Ihua mni, speaks in this interview about the latest findings from the Institute’s 2025 Nigeria Social Cohesion Survey, recently unveiled in Abuja. He argues that social cohesion is the glue that holds society together, and for Nigeria to make progress, government at all levels must pay attention to the subject of social cohesion. Joel Ajayi brings us excerpts from the exclusive interview.

Your Institute has been around for a while now, conducting surveys, opinion polls, social research, and churning out all manner of data to support national development. You recently released a study on social cohesion in Nigeria. Can you tell us a bit about that?

Thank you very much for the opportunity and your kind words. Yes, Africa Polling Institute has been around since 2019, and we’ve been committed to bridging the gap between the government and the governed by helping to capture the opinions, views, perspectives, and attitudes of citizens in Nigeria and sub-Saharan Africa on issues relating to governance, democracy, economy, markets, and public life.

 So, from the very hard issues, such as the economy, governance, and people’s perceptions of democracy today, to the much softer or lighter topics, like entertainment, how people relax, what comedy skits they watch, and what they love to eat for breakfast, lunch, or dinner.

So we straddle across board. However, I would like to start this interview by clarifying a few key points. First, it is worth noting that the API is independent, non-profit, and non-partisan. We do not represent any commercial, political, or group interest whatsoever. I say this because we have had instances in the past where some politicians attended our events and made certain statements that a section of the media tried to affiliate us with such perspectives.

No, we are independent and neutral. Secondly, we are a group of credible professionals, men and women of integrity. What we find from our studies is what we report and publish; we do not try to paint or embellish our results to favour any section of society. I’ve been around for a while, and we have worked extremely hard to get here. Stakeholders within the industry can attest to the quality of our work. I resigned from my lecturing job and returned to Nigeria from the UK in January 2012. Since then, I have conducted polls and surveys, working with various administrations, including those of President Goodluck Jonathan, President Buhari, and now President Bola Tinubu.

 I have found over the years that certain functionaries may not always agree with our findings, but we publish what we find nonetheless, and they know we are credible. I say this because sometimes our findings may come across as if we are anti-government or anti the political party in power, but the fact is that we are pro-Nigeria. We speak trust to power using hard, credible, scientifically researched data.

Thirdly, as a Member of the National Institute of Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), I am committed to Nigeria’s long-term development. As you may be aware, our motto is: Towards a better society, and once you’ve been through the senior executive course (SEC) or even any of the short courses there, your orientation has been reshaped from that of a complainer or problem-identifier to a solution provider for the nation.

In essence, we do not just bear mni after our names for nothing; it comes with a lifetime obligation of service to Nigeria. Finally, let me state that, as opposed to the rather negative reports shared in the media regarding the state of social cohesion in Nigeria, there are quite a lot of positive findings from the 2025 study showing that Nigeria has made quite some progress, especially in comparison with the previous government, and they need to be highlighted further.

This is interesting to hear. Okay, let’s start with the positives. Can you tell us about some of the positive findings from the social cohesion survey?

Thank you again. Yes, as I mentioned, Nigeria has made some progress in improving the state of social cohesion under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. First, the Nigeria Social Cohesion Index was calculated as 46.8%. Although this is still under the average threshold of 50%, it is a 7.2 percentage point improvement from the 2022 score, which stood at 39.6%. Secondly, we have also observed improved attitudes among citizens in several areas.

 For example, in the area of how united or divided Nigeria is today, the data reported that 76% stated that the country is much more divided today, compared to four years ago. This percentage may seem high, but it represents an 11-percentage point decrease from the 2022 score of 87%, indicating that fewer people currently believe the country is much more divided today under the administration of President Tinubu, compared to that of President Buhari. Also, in the area of Gender Equity, there is a glimmer of hope when you see the data.

For instance, 63% say they would be willing to vote for a Woman as President of Nigeria, 69% would be willing to vote for a Woman as Governor of their State, and 76% would be willing to vote for a Woman as their local government chairperson. In addition, 79% of citizens believe that qualification and competence should be the primary focus, rather than gender, when considering individuals for public positions; 75% believe that people should be paid according to their competence, not their gender; and 73% agree that women should have equal entitlement to family inheritances.

 These findings suggest an increasing openness for women to hold top political offices and acceptance that women can occupy prominent political roles beyond just voting. Additionally, 87% believe that boys and girls should have equal access to education, which is a very positive development. As you can see, we’ve made some progress in certain areas, and it is essential that we highlight them.

From the data, in what areas of social cohesion is Nigeria still lacking as a country?

Based on the data, there are several areas that require a lot more work to achieve. For instance, areas of identity and trust remain significant concerns.

On the issue of identity, the data reported that more Nigerians have a proclivity towards ethnicity than nationalism. You see, one of the questions on the survey asks citizens how they see themselves. It asks whether they see themselves as Nigerians or first from their respective ethnic origins.

 The literature suggests that the more citizens perceive themselves as Nigerians first, the more socially cohesive the country is; however, if citizens identify themselves primarily by their ethnicity, then the country becomes less cohesive. The data suggest that over the last decade, citizens have tended to identify more by ethnicity and less by nationality, identifying as Nigerians first.

So you see, there’s a lot that needs to be done to ensure that citizens put Nigeria first, that strong national identity that citizens are proud of and can give their lives for. You know, Western countries were established on the back of nationalism. Men and women came together to pledge their allegiance to their country, even to the point of going to war to defend the country.

My point is that we need to do more to entrench a national identity that serves as a rallying point for all citizens, regardless of their tribe, language, religion, age, and gender. Just as our national anthem states, though tribe or tongue may differ, in brotherhood we stand. The second big elephant in the room is the issue of trust.

 The data reported significant erosion in citizens’ trust towards government and public institutions. Since the country’s return to democratic rule, citizens’ trust in the government has continued to erode, and this trend has become more pronounced over the past decade, first under President Buhari and now under President Tinubu. In fact, the 2023 election dealt a terrible blow to Nigeria, in the sense that it created serious divisions in the country, especially religious and ethnic tension, and that has deepened the faultlines and even eroded trust among citizens.

And this should have been the first task for the President the moment he assumed office. He should have introduced policies to reunite the country first and rebuild the bonds of love, togetherness, and mutual trust. And this should have been reflected in his appointments as well, but we all know what citizens are saying about the appointments.

How important is the Social Cohesion Survey data to driving development in Nigeria?

One of the top scholars of social cohesion in the literature, Langer, describes the concept as the glue that holds society together. When there is no glue holding the society together, you know what would happen to it. Agitations here and there, clamour for secession, rise in crime and nefarious activities, calls over perceived marginalization, and all that.

So do you understand why we have IPOB and the rest, the north saying they have been marginalized in terms of public appointments, the west saying their forests have been taken over, and the Niger Delta activists having their own agitations? They are all symptomatic of a weak glue holding the country together. That is the importance of social cohesion. Do people have a sense of belonging in the country, or do they see the country as we versus them? Do they trust those in government? Do they even trust fellow citizens from other religious divides or other parts of the country?

Do they think that all Nigerians are equal under the law, or are there some Nigerians more equal than others? We talk about multidimensional poverty affecting 76 percent of the population, in a country where some people are saying ‘money na water.’ You talk about our health systems, and you hear anecdotes of how public hospitals lack basic health supplies and medicines to treat citizens, especially in rural areas, such that they have to send some patients away at times.

You hear citizens make sarcastic comments like ‘may Nigeria not happen to you.’ These comments all emphasize the role of social cohesion as the glue that holds society together. Therefore, you can’t discuss the development of a country without addressing the issue of social cohesion.

Can you tell us a bit more about the capacity-building workshops organized by API? What were they about, and who were the target audiences?

Yes, the essence of our research efforts isn’t just to undertake studies and publish them, but also to engage with key stakeholders. With the support of our donor, Ford Foundation, we were able to enhance the capacity of two groups of stakeholders. First, we had a session with institutions mandated to promote unity, oneness, and cohesion in the country.

So public institutions like the National Orientation Agency, Federal Character Commission, Nigeria Television Authority, and the rest. We brought them together to expose them to the concept of social cohesion and how to design policies and programmes through the lens of social cohesion data.

 The second group of stakeholders consisted of media practitioners, including information officers from public institutions and journalists from print and electronic media. Their session focused on how to engage in socially cohesive media reportage. They were both well attended and well-received. Many participants had never heard of the concept of social cohesion, and discussing the indicators measured and the survey findings was considered quite insightful.

In conclusion, what advice do you have for policymakers on the need to imbibe the use of social cohesion data in their policymaking?

Our major thesis is that for Nigeria to make progress, governments at all levels —federal, state, and local— must pay close attention to the subject of social cohesion and understand the implications of the survey findings. Then, they need to begin implementing policies and programmes to promote unity, oneness, peaceful coexistence, and cohesion. That glue holding society together has to be strengthened to build an enduring and sustainable country.

Without unity and peaceful coexistence, we cannot make progress as a people. But, of course, the example has to be set from the top, so we need to see President Tinubu and his administration generally instituting initiatives that are geared towards building national cohesion, then we can see state Governors following suit, and local government council chairpersons also introducing local initiatives to promote a sense of belonging, national identity, and trust. Finally, our politicians need to change their politics of prebendalism and the ‘winner-takes-all’ approach.

They need to put the country first and consider how to ensure that all citizens have a strong national identity and feel a deep sense of belonging, pride, and trust towards Nigeria. I strongly believe our best days are ahead of us.