The Race to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari come February 25th is getting more intensed and Political Observers are particularly looking forward to the Elections because of the unusual three dimensional twist to the Polls this time around.

For the first time in Nigeria Democratic History, the battle is not a straight forward fight between the Country’s two popular parties, the APC and PDP but there is a genuine third force in the Labour Party, which says it is ready to ruffle the existing status quo.

But the big question is how far can the Labour Party go in this exciting race when Nigerians go to the Polls.

For the neutrals , having a Third force in the Labour Party is very good for the Country’s Politics.

I definitely will not doubt that but this third Force is an offshoot of one of the popular Parties, the PDP, so in the actual sense nothing really is new.

So as it stands, with few weeks to the Election on the 25th of February, there are undoubtedly three leading candidates, Bola Tinubu of the ruling Party APC, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, no disrespect to other Presidential candidates especially Ibrahim Kwankwanso of the NNPP.

The three leading candidates have been going through the length and breadth of the country to campaign, selling their manifestoes and even taking swipe at each other to convince Nigerians to vote them into Power.

But what is actually the Calculations and Permutations of these three candidates on how they will get the majority of the vote needed to emerge Winner.

Labour Party and Obi is banking on APC and PDP to cancel each other with the Northern vote while it will rely on a bulk vote from the South especially the South South and South East couple with the social media support of new and young voters to win.

This is exactly the thinking of the Labour Party but observation and experience have shown that it might not necessarily play out this way.

The sort of Campaign and support a candidate like Bola Tinubu has in the entire South might have automatically punctured the thinking of the Labour Party in this regard.

As fervent and zealous the Obidient movement is , the Political fact remains that the Labour Party is a neophyte in the scheme of things.

Yes , they are gaining grounds amongst some young and new voters but their success so far is still a far cry to what they will need to emerge as a ruling Party in the upcoming Elections.

In the core North like Kano, Katsina, Bornu, Kebbi, and Kaduna , where voting population is huge, the Labour Party has no competing presence whatsoever.

So the earlier the so called Obidients understand that winning the upcoming Elections does not start and end with abuse and insult on social media , the better they will understand their factual strength.

For the PDP and ATIKU, they are banking on weeping a Northern sentiment of “He’s our Own” to get a bulk vote from the Highly populated voting citizens from the North to win, despite Nigeria coming out of a Northern Government of 8years with President Buhari.

This is the tribalistic weapon the PDP Candidate wants to use to get into Aso Rock. However, going by the gallant behavior of most Northern Governors who are backing Asiwaju, Atiku might need to play another card to win the election.

The majority of the Northern Governors who are in the APC have been very loud and clear in their pursuit to ensure Power rotate to the South after eight years of a Northerner as President of Nigeria.

They said this is not negotiable in the Spirit of fairness, oneness, equity and justice which has always been the hallmark of an average Northerner.

According to one of the Northern Governors, Mallam El Rufai of Kaduna state on why majority of the Northern Governors are supporting Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

“When the Northern APC Governors met and took a position that we insist in our Party that power must rotate to the South , We did so out of our understanding of our sense of history.”

” We always ask ourselves as Northern Governors, What will sir Ahmadu Bello do in the same circumstances, what will Tafawa Balewa do ,What will Aminu Kano do before we take a position because we are the inheritance of that legacies.”

” The Nineteen Northern APC Governors and the FCT Minister are the direct inheritance of the legacies of Sir Ahmadu Bello, Saudana of Sokoto”.

” We are conscious of that burden of responsibilities and that is why when we debate to take decisions , we have these illustrious sons of Northern Nigeria as our reference point”.

“This is why we took the position without regards to the interest of some people who insisted that after eight years of President Buhari’s tenure he should be succeeded by yet another Northerner”

” We felt as Northern Governors that this is not in our character , we are not like that , we are people of Honour and Justice”.

” This is what our Grand Fathers did and it is our duty to protect the sacred word of every Northern Politician.When we say we will do something ,it does not have to be written , we do it and we deliver on it”, Governor El Rufai said.

For APC and ASIWAJU, they are banking on Labour Party to hugely do damage to PDP vote in the entire South especially the South East and South South while it will take advantage of its traditional stronghold in the North and South West to win the upcoming Election.

The extent of PDP’s diminishing popularity in the South has been further increased by the G-5 activities led by the Governor of River State Nyesom Wike.

This is definitely one factor that will affect the overall vote of the PDP in the South especially the South South.

This also has played quietly into the hands of the APC to have the required 25 percent vote it naturally would have struggled to have in the South South and South East.

Only an inexperienced Political Observer will not know that Governor Wike still has a big influence in almost all the PDP States that can’t be taken for granted going into the polls.

As Atiku is battling the headache of Wike and the G-5, another factor that will negatively affect his outcome is the Kwankwanso effect.

Kwankwanso’s departure from the PDP will also reduce the Party’s total vote in the North especially in Kano. And again this is a plus for Asiwaju not Labour Party.

Therefore looking at all the calculations of the three main Parties , the APC analysis is still the more feasible looking at the Country’s Political realities.

The Party has a solid existing structure across the Country and the coming of a third force in Peter Obi is more of a damage to the PDP than the APC.

Naturally the bulk of the vote Labour Party will garner in the Election will be mostly PDP votes if Peter Obi was still in the PDP.

I have no doubt that its the APC that will win the Election although it might not be with an overwhelming margin but Bola Ahmed Tinubu is Nigeria next President.

Micheal Obasi.
Member, Public Affairs,
APC Presidential Campaign Council.