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TINUBU’S PALLIATIVE PLAN: ONLY CENSUS DATA WILL REVEAL THE REAL POOR NIGERIANS

Published

2 years ago

July 26, 2023

✅ By Stanley O. Nwosu

The announcement by the Federal Government and subsequent approval by the National Assembly of the request to share N500 billion palliatives to poor and vulnerable households in Nigeria in order to cushion the adverse effect of the recent removal of fuel subsidy has continued to generate reactions on social and mainstream media as Nigerians continue to question its adequacy, mode of disbursement and sustainability.

Aside from the fact that the N8,000 monthly disbursement to 12 million households for a period of six months will not make any meaningful impact on the lives of these Nigerians, many people have also expressed concerns and worries as to whether the money will get to the real beneficiaries and not end up in the private pockets of privileged people, considering the dearth of credible and up-to-date data in the country and lack of transparency that trail disbursement of palliatives in Nigeria.

Accurate data is a very scarce commodity in Nigeria. Data credibility and integrity is also a big issue in the country. The country has been relying on estimated figures since the last Population and Housing Census in Nigeria over 17 years ago. There is no comprehensive, reliable and verifiable database of poor and vulnerable people in the country which only census data can provide.

The country has relied on the National Social Register (NSR) of poor and vulnerable households in Nigeria developed by the National Social Safety-nets Coordinating Office (NASSCO) for its social intervention programmes. As of April 2023, NASSCO has been able to enlist 15,724,871 households and 62,792,794 individuals into the NSR database.

The number of the enumerated poor and vulnerable individuals in the National Social Register falls far below over 133 million people who are multidimensionally poor in Nigeria. That means that the number of poor Nigerians outside the register is more than those included in the register.

Many poor Nigerians have been excluded from benefiting from palliatives. It’s also worrisome that only 17% of the individuals in the NSR have bank accounts while just 25% of them have valid means of identification. What it means is that only a small percentage of the poor citizens in the social register can be tracked with their identification number or bank verification number to ascertain whether they truly exist or fictitious names. Without verifiable means of identification of the vulnerable Nigerians, the social register will be susceptible to manipulation.

Although, NASSCO stated that it used a targeting and identification mechanism to build the National Social Register but the limited scope and inability to verify and track those individuals on the register makes it difficult to trust and rely on the database for planning.

The lack of a credible and unified database of the poor and vulnerable Nigerians affected the effective implementation of the National Social Investment Programme (NSIP) introduced by former president Muhammadu Buhari’s administration.

The Buhari government introduced a Conditional Cash Transfer programme of N5,000 monthly grants to poor and vulnerable households, the National Home-Grown School Feeding Programme (NHGSFP), the Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP), N-Power etc to empower the unemployed youth and women and reduced poverty in the country but unfortunately the laudable projects failed to create the desired impact in improving the quality of lives of the poor and vulnerable Nigerians.

Monthly, billions of naira were mapped out for these social investment programmes but the identity of the majority of the beneficiaries remains unknown to most Nigerians as everyone kept on asking who are the beneficiaries.

The Senate Public Account Committee while probing the N52 billion Special Public Works Programme coordinated by the National Directorate of Employment (NDE) to recruit 1,000 young Nigerians from each of the 774 LGAs for three months and pay them N20,000 each in 2020 demanded a list of the 774,000 Nigerian beneficiaries of the programme after some of its members disclosed that none of their constituents benefited from the programme. It then beats the imaginations of many to wonder about the database used for these intervention programmes, if senators could not identify their constituents among the beneficiaries.

No wonder that despite the efforts of the former President Muhammadu Buhari administration to lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in ten years but ended up plunging more Nigerians into poverty. The last administration met 60 million poor Nigerians upon the assumption of office in 2015 but left when the numbers increased to over 90 million.

The numbers have increased further as the World Bank disclosed that no fewer than four million Nigerians were pushed into the poverty trap in the first six months of this year, with another 7.1 million more expected to join the conundrum if properly targeted measures are not taken to manage the impact of fuel subsidy removal.

Even the recent decision of the National Economic Council led by Vice President, Sen. Kashim Shettima to jettison the National Social Register for State Social Registers due to lack of credibility and reliability does not make any difference as the State Registers are a component of the NSR.

If the NSR fails the data integrity test, it means State Registers will fail too. The only difference is that the disbursement of the palliatives will be done by the State Governments instead of the Federal Government.

Planning relies basically on data. The importance of planning with credible data to both an individual and a nation cannot be overemphasized in order to make efficient use of limited available resources for maximal satisfaction. Indeed, census data is the solution to the myriad of developmental challenges facing the county.

No country relies solely on its estimated population because such estimates ignore the demographics unearthed by census data which are needed for national planning purposes.

A national population census, in addition to determining the actual number of people, also gives us important data on the distribution of the population by age, sex, location, household characteristics and socio-economic strata among others. This detailed information is critical to national planning and development. A country that doesn’t know its true population would definitely not be in a position to determine the actual number of its poor citizens.

To get comprehensive, up-to-date and reliable data for the disbursement of palliative to the poorest households and other national development planning, the Federal Government should as a matter of urgency fix a date for the National Population Commission to complete the Population and Housing Census exercise that was postponed by the previous administration.

The 2023 Census will be the first fully digital census in the history of Nigeria. NPC has introduced innovative digital technology to be used in the entire census process starting from the Enumeration Area Demarcation to pretesting of tools, recruitment, data quality management, monitoring & evaluation, project management, communications, main data collection, fieldwork monitoring and dissemination of census data.

The forthcoming census will be the first time the whole population and housing units in the country will be geocoded. It means that the 2023 Census will provide verifiable data on the Nigerian population and link each person to a location.

Before now and as part of the preparatory activities for the upcoming census, the National Population Commission has successfully conducted Enumeration Area Demarcation (EAD) in the 774 LGAs and in the process captured all buildings in Nigeria with their geo-coordinates using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology.

NPC has also collaborated with NIPOST to create a proper digital addressing system in the country using the EAD geospatial dataset of all buildings in Nigeria. So, the census exercise will be to enumerate every person in Nigeria and link them to a particular building or location. With that information, tracking, identifying and planning for the citizens will be easy.

In addition, the census will canvass questions on the economic characteristics of the respondents to reveal their employment status and type of economic activities done in the last 7 days preceding the census night, and the housing characteristics and amenities to collect information on their type of buildings, construction materials used for the buildings, number of sleeping rooms, ownership status, tenure status of the households living in the buildings, source of drinking water, type of lighting and cooking fuel, and other household assets.

Questions will also be asked on housing sanitation to generate information on the type and sharing status of toilet facilities and other sanitation measures; difficulty in performing activities to ascertain the number of persons living with disabilities; Information Communication Technology to collect information on ICT devices owned and access to internet facility; literacy and education characteristics; internal migration; fertility and child survival status; survival status of the parents; demographic background and social characteristics; the impact of climate change as well as other thematic areas.

With the detailed information, the 2023 Population and Housing Census will not only provide a credible and verifiable database of the poor and vulnerable Nigerians but also where they live. Sharing of palliatives with this correct census data of the vulnerable households will help the governments to target the right beneficiaries and create the necessary impact of uplifting these poor Nigerians.

President Tinubu should as a matter of urgency prioritise conducting the upcoming Population and Housing Census and use the census data as the foundational guide for evidence-based planning and implementation of his administration’s renewed hope agenda.

©️ Stanley O. Nwosu, a writer, image maker, photo journalist, public affairs analyst, and political economist, is the NPC Social Media Manager

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Presidency Refutes Afenifere’s Deceitful Statement on President Bola Tinubu’s Midterm:

Published

3 days ago

June 5, 2025

The Gleamer

Chief Sunday Dare

The statement from a factional Afenifere group raises serious concerns about a penchant and deliberate attempt to find faults and trade in deceit instead of objectivity. The group has found it challenging to accept that under the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s comeback story is firmly underway.

The rebellious Afenifere claims that President Bola Tinubu’s administration’s performance over the past two years has witnessed a regression in human development, economic mismanagement, and democratic backsliding.

This is a jaundiced view, echoing the view of opposition politicians, one of whom the group supported in the 2023 election.

A balanced assessment based on available data reveals a more objective and progressive picture, with significant achievements amid the challenges expected from a country like Nigeria with decades-old problems.

Beyond its confounding conclusions based on prejudice, the statement raises the following issues. With the ensuing point-by-point clarification, it will become clear that the group’s position is neither grounded in facts nor logic.

Economic Reforms and Their Impact

The factional Afenifere’s claim that Tinubu’s economic reforms, particularly the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira, have led to “unmitigated sufferings” and “economic deforms” seeks to draw attention to some of the challenges but overlooks the macroeconomic gains. The removal of the fuel subsidy, announced on May 29, 2023, saved the government over $10 billion in 2023 alone, reducing fiscal strain and redirecting funds to other sectors. Unifying the foreign exchange market and the naira’s floatation aimed to address distortions in the currency market, boosted foreign reserves to $38.1 billion by 2024 and achieved a trade surplus of N18.86 trillion for the country.

Under the Tinubu administration, Nigeria’s annual inflation rate fell to 23.71% in April 2025 from 24.23% in the prior month. Food inflation, the most significant component of the inflation basket, remained elevated but moderated to 21.26% from 21.79%

While these figures indicate stabilisation, the immediate impact on ordinary Nigerians is not lost. The government’s cash transfer programme, which provides funds to the poorest households and benefits over 5.7 million households, is a credible outreach.

However, dismissing the twin policies as “unforced errors” ignores the unsustainable nature of the previous subsidy regime and multiple exchange rate systems, which were draining public finances. A more balanced critique would acknowledge the necessity of reform while emphasising the need for better-targeted social safety nets.

As of today, the Tinubu administration has recorded over 900,000 beneficiaries of the Presidential Loan and Grant Scheme, over 600,000 beneficiaries of the Students’ Loan Scheme, NELFUND, N70,000 minimum wage, NYSC monthly stipend increase from N33,000 to N77,000, Free CNG kits distributed to thousands of commercial drivers across Nigeria with CNG buses rolled out in partnership with state governments, leading to a significant drop in transport costs. The administration also recorded over $10 Billion FX debt cleared, Federal account allocation to states growing by 60%, enabling more local development projects, N50 billion released to end the perennial ASUU strikes, and over 1,000 PHCs revitalised nationwide with an additional 5,500 undergoing upgrades.

The administration also disbursed N75 Billion in palliative funds to states and LGs for food distribution and cash transfers, over 150,000 youths are being trained in software development, tech support and data analysis under the 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) project, over 20,000 affordable housing units under construction under the renewed Hope cities program launched across Nigeria, N200 Billion in Loans to farmers and agro-processors. Other gains: over two million Nigerians are now connected to new digital infrastructure and community broadband hubs and public WiFi projects, 3.84% GDP growth in Q4 2024 (highest in 3 years), over $50 Billion in new FDI Commitments, Net Foreign Exchange Reserves up from $3.99 Billion (2023) to $23.11 Billion (2024), over $8 Billion in new oil and gas investments unlocked, and over $800 million realised in processing investments in solid minerals in 2024 and inflation as at April was down to 23.17%.

It is now pertinent to inquire from opposition leaders about alternative strategies they would propose in contrast to this administration’s extensive list of significant achievements currently benefiting Nigerians in real-time.

Cost of Governance and the Oronsaye Report

The assertion that the Tinubu administration has failed to implement the Oronsaye Report and instead increased governance costs is inaccurate. The Oronsaye Report, which recommends the merger or scrapping of government agencies to reduce expenditure, has not been fully implemented and has drawn criticisms; it must be noted, however, that the administration has made some efforts to improve fiscal discipline. The fiscal deficit was reduced from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024, and the debt service-to-revenue ratio dropped from nearly 100% in 2022 to under 40% by 2024. The government also recorded over N6 trillion in revenue in Q1 2025, partly due to removing Ways & Means financing and fuel subsidies. These steps demonstrate fiscal prudence and will eventually translate into immediate, tangible relief for citizens. The administration is working earnestly to address these optics and prioritise cost-cutting measures, including implementing the Oronsaye Report, to restore public trust.

Allegations of Prebendalism and Corruption

Afenifere’s claim that the administration favours “the privileged and connected” through corrupt palliative distribution and mega-project allocations is questionable. Reports of palliatives being mismanaged or distributed through unverified channels have no doubt surfaced, raising concerns about transparency.

The administration has taken steps against corruption, such as suspending Humanitarian Affairs Minister Betta Edu in January 2024 over alleged fund diversion, signalling some commitment to accountability. Critics may argue that more systemic action is needed, but dismissing all the efforts as propaganda overlooks these initial steps.

Without abusing Presidential powers, the administration is working on expediting action on all pending investigations and prosecution of corrupt practices. At the same time, critical agencies are collating credible evidence on ongoing corruption litigations. It must, however, be noted that in 2024, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) secured a record-breaking 4,111 convictions, marking its most successful year since its inception. They recovered over N364 billion and significant amounts in foreign currencies, including $214.5 Million, $54,318.64, and 31,265 Euros.

The EFCC achieved its single most significant asset recovery in 2025, with the final forfeiture of an Abuja estate measuring 150,500 square meters and containing 725 units of duplexes and other apartments. The EFCC concluded the final forfeiture and handed the estate to the Ministry of Housing in May 2025.

Democratic Concerns and Centralisation

Afenifere’s accusation that the Tinubu administration is pursuing a “one-party state totalitarianism” and undermining democratic institutions is unsupported and lacks merit. The claim of neutralising the legislature and judiciary is also a false alarm.

The public should note that the Supreme Court has upheld opposition victories in states like Kano, Plateau, and Abia, suggesting judicial independence. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has faced criticism for allegedly appointing individuals said to be ruling party affiliates, but no evidence confirms these appointees are card-carrying APC members.

The allegation that the Tinubu government cracks down on peaceful protesters is primarily unfounded. It is a regurgitated rhetoric deployed under previous administrations as a reflection of broader challenges in Nigeria’s democratic culture.

The issue of the State Police is more complex than the oversimplified approach of the factional Afenifere’s statement. Every administration policy is subject to security impact assessment before implementation, and there is a difference between the State Police being widely advocated and a Police State that critics may blame the Federal Government for if implemented without caution.

Security and Social Welfare

Contrary to the impression created, the administration’s security record is impressive. Over 13,500 terrorists, bandits, and insurgents have been neutralised and 7,000 arrested in the past year, though there is still some news of abductions and violent attacks. The administration’s proactive response to security-related matters has paved the way for more farmers to return to their farms, impacting food production and supply.

The administration also embarked on agricultural initiatives, including tractor procurement, fertiliser distribution, and increased mechanisation.

The government has also not relented on its Regional Development drive as the administration succeeded in establishing Development Commissions across 6 Geopolitical zones (South West, North West, North Central. North East, South East and the Niger Delta) to empower communities and accelerate developments.

Political Climate and 2027 Elections
The claims of government-sponsored conflicts within opposition parties lack concrete evidence and should be ignored.

Economic reforms are undoubtedly laying the foundation for long-term stability, with GDP growth at 4.6% in Q4 2024 and a Fitch B credit rating upgrade as evidence. Moody’s Investors Service’s latest upgrade of Nigeria’s rating from Caa1 to B3, with a Stable Outlook, indicates that the Tinubu administration is on the right path.

The government is not oblivious to some discontent and difficult times among Nigerians. There is an urgency to deliver more tangible results, which is guaranteed given the impressive performance of the administration in just two years.

Afenifere’s statement saw the cup as half empty. On the contrary, it’s half full. Under President Tinubu’s administration, some of Nigeria’s hydra-headed problems are being tackled headlong.

The administration has achieved fiscal improvements, such as reduced deficits and increased revenues, which will eventually translate into meaningful microeconomic relief for most Nigerians in the short term, even as the government moves to address these issues with greater empathy and transparency.

The administration’s demonstrable priorities are securing the nation, fixing the economy, and improving human capital development.

Responsible citizens and political leaders must work collaboratively with the administration to address the challenges and counter disinformation, as highlighted in the admonition against fake news and deceptive AI videos.

Under President Tinubu’s leadership, Nigeria is turning the corner. From stabilising the naira and curbing inflation to reducing debt burdens and

expanding access to education and health, the administration delivers bold reforms with actual results. With improved security, regional inclusion, anti-corruption measures, and institutional rebuilding, Nigeria’s comeback story is not yet complete — but it is firmly underway.

– Sunday Dare is the Special Adviser to Mr. President on Media and Public Communications.

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