Opinion

Nigerians Are Holding the Country Together! Their Leaders Are Not

Published

4 months ago

July 1, 2026

By Samuel Ikani; Managing Partner and CEO, Insights &Strategy Consulting Limited

When the Africa Polling Institute unveiled the 2026 Nigeria Social Cohesion Survey in Abuja on 25 June 2026, one result immediately stood out. Nigeria’s Social Cohesion Index (NSCI) has risen to 48.8 per cent, the highest score recorded since the survey began in 2019.

At first glance, this appears to be encouraging news. A closer reading of the report, however, tells a more sobering story. While the country has recorded its strongest performance to date, it still remains below the 50 per cent threshold that represents a socially cohesive nation. After seven years of measurement, Nigeria continues to operate below the point where national unity can be considered stable.

For policymakers, this distinction matters. Improvement should not be mistaken for transformation. The latest figures suggest that while Nigerians continue to demonstrate remarkable resilience, the institutions responsible for governing them are yet to build the level of confidence required to sustain long-term national cohesion.

The report also reveals an important trend. The Social Cohesion Index declined sharply from 44.2 per cent in 2021 to 39.6 per cent in 2022, reflecting one of the most politically divisive periods in Nigeria’s recent history. Since then, the index has steadily recovered, reaching 46.8 per cent in 2025 before climbing to 48.8 per cent this year.

Ordinarily, such a recovery would suggest that citizens increasingly perceive the country as becoming more united. Yet another finding in the report presents a striking contradiction; Nearly 48 per cent of Nigerians now believe the country is more divided than it was four years ago, compared with 31 per cent in 2025. The coexistence of these two findings is perhaps the most significant policy insight contained in the report.

The explanation appears to be that cohesion is growing primarily among citizens themselves, while confidence in the political and governance environment continues to weaken. Communities are finding ways to cooperate, support one another and maintain relationships despite increasing political tensions. At the same time, many Nigerians believe the country’s political environment is becoming increasingly polarised.

The report identifies the principal driver of this division. Party political affiliation, cited by 56 per cent of respondents, has overtaken both ethnicity (46 per cent) and religion (44 per cent) as the leading source of conflict within communities.

This finding deserves serious attention. For decades, discussions around national unity have focused largely on ethnic and religious divisions. The evidence now suggests that political competition itself has become the strongest force fragmenting social relationships. This represents an important shift in Nigeria’s conflict dynamics and should prompt a reassessment of how political engagement is conducted.

One of the most encouraging findings in this year’s survey is the emergence of a stronger national identity. For the first time since the study began, a majority of respondents identify themselves primarily as Nigerians rather than by ethnic, religious or regional affiliation.

This represents a significant national asset. Shared national identity is one of the strongest foundations upon which peaceful societies are built. It strengthens trust between communities, encourages cooperation and creates a common basis for addressing national challenges.

Yet this optimism is tempered by another statistic. Fifty-five per cent of Nigerians say they would relocate abroad immediately if given the opportunity. This illustrates the complexity of the country’s current reality. Citizens may increasingly identify with Nigeria, yet many remain uncertain about its future. Patriotism alone cannot compensate for declining economic opportunity, weak public services or diminishing confidence in governance. National identity can inspire hope, but only effective institutions can sustain it.

Perhaps the most consequential findings in the report relate to institutional trust. Nigerians continue to place relatively high levels of confidence in religious leaders (51 per cent) and traditional rulers (45 per cent). Confidence in public institutions, however, remains significantly lower.

Only 28 per cent of respondent’s express trust in the current administration, while the National Assembly records the lowest trust rating at 23 per cent, making it the least trusted public institution in the country.

This should concern every policymaker, researcher or development specialist.

Social cohesion depends not only on relationships between citizens but also on the quality of the relationship between citizens and the institutions established to serve them. A society where people trust one another but have little confidence in public institutions faces an enduring governance deficit. While citizens may continue to demonstrate resilience, that resilience should not be mistaken for institutional effectiveness.

There is one encouraging development. Public distrust in the executives has declined from 83 per cent to 72 per cent over the past year. Although modest, this suggests that confidence can be rebuilt where deliberate efforts are made. The challenge is to ensure that this progress extends across all public institutions rather than remaining isolated.

The broader lesson from the report is that Nigeria’s improving cohesion should not be interpreted as evidence that all is well. Rather, it reflects the extraordinary capacity of Nigerians to maintain relationships, adapt to hardship and preserve social order despite persistent economic and political pressures.

Resilience is a national strength, but it is not a substitute for good governance.

There is an important difference between citizens becoming more united because public institutions are performing effectively and citizens becoming more united because they are collectively enduring hardship. The former represents sustainable development. The latter represents survival.

This distinction should guide how government interprets these findings. The policy implications are therefore clear.

The proposal contained in the report to establish a National Social Cohesion Commission, similar to Kenya’s National Cohesion and Integration Commission, deserves serious consideration. Equally important is the recommendation to institutionalise social cohesion across Ministries, Departments and Agencies so that policy formulation routinely considers its impact on trust, inclusion and national unity.

Beyond institutional reforms, however, Nigeria must confront the growing role of partisan politics in deepening social divisions. If political affiliation has become the country’s leading source of conflict, then reducing political polarisation is no longer simply an electoral concern. It is a national development priority and a matter of long-term national stability.

The emergence of a stronger Nigerian identity is perhaps the most valuable finding in this year’s report. It is evidence that citizens are increasingly choosing common nationhood over narrower identities. That progress should be protected, strengthened and matched by institutions that inspire the same confidence citizens increasingly place in one another.

Ultimately, the figure to watch is not 48.8 per cent. It is 50 per cent. Crossing that threshold will matter only if it reflects a country where stronger institutions, responsive leadership and effective governance have reinforced the resilience already demonstrated by its people; not simply another year in which Nigerians held the country together despite the system rather than because of it.

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Opinion

China-Africa Cooperation: Tackling Insecurity Through Development

Lt. Gen. Abdulrahman B. Dambazau (rtd), PhD, CFR, Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to the People’s Republic of China.

Published

2 days ago

November 9, 2026

The Gleamer

By Lt. Gen. Abdulrahman B. Dambazau (rtd), PhD, CFR

A farmer who cannot safely reach his land, a child whose school has closed because of violence, and a young graduate unable to find productive employment experience insecurity in different ways.

Their circumstances reveal a common challenge: lasting peace requires protection from violence and the opportunity to live with dignity. This connection should occupy a central place in China–Africa cooperation.

My experience in military leadership, internal security and diplomacy has reinforced my conviction that security operations must form part of a broader national effort. Armed forces and law enforcement agencies have indispensable responsibilities to protect communities, confront violent groups and uphold the law.

The gains they secure become durable when legitimate institutions, functioning services and economic opportunities take root.

Development is therefore a strategic component of security. Where communities can farm, trade, learn and obtain justice, they have stronger foundations for resisting the pressures that sustain violence.

Poverty does not automatically produce terrorism or criminality. Millions endure hardship without turning to violence. Insecurity also arises from political exclusion, contested resources, extremist ideologies, organised crime and institutional weakness. Nevertheless, prolonged deprivation and a lack of credible opportunities can create vulnerabilities that violent actors exploit.

Effective policy must address both those actors and the conditions that enable their influence.
China–Africa cooperation offers a framework for advancing this approach. The Forum on China–Africa Cooperation’s Beijing Action Plan for 2025–2027 brings peace and security into the same programme as industrialisation, agriculture, infrastructure, education, public health and green development. Its significance lies in the opportunity to connect these fields through practical implementation.

China’s development experience provides useful lessons. A joint study by the World Bank and Chinese institutions reported in 2022 that, over the preceding four decades, the number of people in China living below the international extreme-poverty line then in use had fallen by close to 800 million.

The study emphasised economic transformation alongside targeted poverty reduction measures. African countries can examine how agricultural productivity, infrastructure, education and employment expanded opportunity, while adapting relevant lessons to their own circumstances.

Africa’s countries have distinct histories, political systems and development priorities. Cooperation will achieve more when African governments define their needs clearly and negotiate partnerships that strengthen domestic capabilities. African ownership must guide project selection, implementation and assessment.

Agriculture should be an immediate priority. In communities affected by insecurity, restoring farming and rural commerce can support recovery and stability. Cooperation in irrigation, improved seeds, machinery, storage, processing and extension services can raise productivity and strengthen livelihoods. Investment should be accompanied by secure access to land, fair arrangements for managing water and grazing resources, and credible mechanisms for resolving disputes.

A processing facility has greater value when farmers can reach it safely, receive fair payment and access wider markets. Communities emerging from violence also need assistance that enables displaced families to return voluntarily, safely and with dignity, and rebuild sustainable livelihoods. Development planning and security planning must meet at this practical level.

Reliable electricity and productive industry are equally important. Power supply enables workshops, factories, health facilities and digital enterprises to function. Industrial cooperation should create opportunities for African workers, suppliers and entrepreneurs, with clear provisions for skills transfer and the maintenance of equipment and facilities.

Young people need realistic pathways from education to work. Technical training should connect to actual demand in manufacturing, construction, agriculture, logistics and technology. Programmes should be assessed by the capabilities and employment they produce. Partnerships between training institutions and employers can help ensure that qualifications lead to productive work.

Infrastructure must be judged by the economic activity and public services it enables. A railway, road or port can support national integration and trade, but its wider benefits depend on connections to local production and affordable access. Project planning must account for maintenance, environmental protection, community interests and financial sustainability. Financing arrangements should be transparent, with repayment obligations assessed against realistic economic returns and public resources.
Education and health deserve the same strategic attention.

Schools help communities recover continuity and hope after disruption. Accessible healthcare reduces household vulnerability and strengthens confidence in public institutions. Cooperation among universities, research centres, hospitals and technical colleges can build the expertise African countries need to sustain these services.

Women must participate fully in this work. Their livelihoods, access to services and involvement in local decision-making matter to household resilience and community recovery. Programmes designed without their participation risk overlooking essential needs and sources of knowledge.

Development cannot compensate for injustice. Communities require fair policing, accessible courts, accountable administration and protection from abuse. A school or clinic will contribute more to lasting stability where citizens also trust public institutions to treat them fairly. Economic investment and institutional reform should proceed together.

Security cooperation should reinforce these foundations. Professional training, peacekeeping capacity, maritime security, action against illicit arms and stronger responses to organised crime can help protect development gains.

Such cooperation should uphold national law, human rights and accountability. Its ultimate purpose must be the safety of people and the strengthening of legitimate institutions.
For Nigeria, the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership established during President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s September 2024 visit to China provides a framework for pursuing these objectives. It offers an opportunity to connect bilateral cooperation more closely with Nigeria’s priorities for economic transformation and national security.

The next task is disciplined implementation. Every major commitment should have an identified responsible institution, a financing arrangement, a timetable and measurable outcomes. Proposed projects, signed agreements, funds disbursed and completed investments represent different stages of progress. Public reporting should make those distinctions clear.

We should ask practical questions. Has an agricultural project improved farmers’ incomes? Has an industrial investment created sustainable employment and developed local suppliers? Has training transferred skills that institutions can retain? Have communities affected by conflict gained safer access to schools, healthcare and markets?

These questions should guide the assessment of cooperation. They also require African governments to fulfil their own responsibilities: coordinating institutions, protecting public resources, maintaining infrastructure and ensuring that investment benefits communities fairly. Regional cooperation is essential where trade routes, shared resources and security threats cross national borders.

China–Africa cooperation can contribute substantially to peace when development expands opportunity, institutions earn public trust and security agencies protect citizens effectively. Its lasting achievement should be visible in ordinary lives: farmers returning safely to their fields, young people securing worthwhile work and children remaining in school. These are the foundations on which a more secure Africa can be built.

_Abdulrahman B. Dambazau is a retired Lieutenant General, former Chief of Army Staff and former Minister of Interior. He is currently the Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to the People’s Republic of China. He writes from Beijing, China._

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