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OBJECTIVE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PAST AND PRESENT ADMINISTRATIONS: ENUGU STATE EXAMPLE.
By Jeff Ejiofor
Performance in governance is among other things, determined by the personal creative ingenuity of the leaders and the resources available to them. In a developing economy like ours, uncertainty is the bane of long term planning when it comes to governance.
The socio-political cum economic uncertainty has made it inconsequential to compare administrations and their performances in Nigeria nay Enugu state. When several factors such as revenue generation, federal subvention, and the strength of our local currency are considered, the inequality inherent in the system will make it absolutely untenable to compare administrations objectively. It is implicit to categorically state that revenue generation and cost of governance are critical determinants of the performance of any administration.
Consequently, looking at the comparative profile of the past and present regimes in Enugu state, the odds and opportunities available to each of them are clear. While this is not intended to emphasize excuses for anybody, it is imperative to note with objective recognition, the disparity in the cost of governance vis a vis the funds available as well as the prevailing exchange rate at any given time.
This is no doubt a major and indispensable factor in assessing the performance of various governments. For the purpose of this article, we will limit our assessment to the current democratic experiment which commenced in 1999. We will also look at Nigeria’s economic dynamics between the days of excess crude earnings and now that recession has driven the oil price to its lowest ebb.
Unarguably, the state of Nigeria’s economy is determined by the international oil market considering that earnings from crude oil account for 95 percent of the country’s foreign revenue generation. As a result of this fact, Nigeria, between 2007 and 2015 when the oil boom was experienced had a robust economy and enormous resources for developmental projects.
In Enugu state, for instance, the situation was not different. While those in government between 2007 and 2015 had enormous resources to bankroll developmental projects and other aspects of governance, handlers of government from 2015 to date have to look inwards and employ extra administrative acumen and dexterity to keep the economy of the state afloat to be able to carry on with the business of governance. It is on record that since the inception of Nigeria as an independent country, the external revenue base has not experienced the kind of drought currently being faced.
A lot of factors are responsible for this, and they range from global economic recession to reduced demand for crude oil by Nigeria’s major buyer, the United States of America whose shale oil fills the gap. This situation no doubt affects the economy of states within the Nigerian federation which includes Enugu state.
Another important factor orchestrating this economic inequality between the past and present administrations is the strength of our local currency at the foreign exchange market. The depreciation of the naira, our local currency at the international market is a great determining factor of our capacity as a people to affect economic activities in our society.
In 2015 when the current regime took over power, a dollar was going for #160 but today a dollar is #420. Those who understand the role of currency in international trade will know the difference in the cost of governance and other dynamics of economic development.
Expectedly, the cost implication of this on governance will be overwhelmingly high with definite exertions of pressure on the system. For example, a one-kilometer road which would have ordinarily taken #1m to construct will cost as much as #3m today judging from the prevailing exchange rate. Can we now see the dilemma of the present office holders when compared with the past?
When people are making comparative analysis and drawing conclusions, they often fail to consider the above undercurrents. This is indeed a major odd that should not be ignored for any reason because of its enormity in affecting the overall performance of any government. This is indeed capable of shaping the performance or otherwise of any regime.
Apparently, these identified barometers should form the basis of rating past and present administrations in Enugu state. It is absolutely subjective to disregard this important aspect of governance when drawing comparisons among previous and present public officeholders. For example, most state governments are currently grappling with the burden of paying salaries because of the present economic condition while that was not an issue In the past considering the huge resources at their disposal because of oil boom.
It is a common knowledge that crude oil which sold for 120 dollars per barrel before 2015 now goes for less than 40 dollars a barrel, and it certainly has a ripple effect on government spending capacity. In short, it suffices to say that finance is the bedrock of government activities with regard to the overall appropriation of developmental projects and other policies affecting the people’s welfare.
Finally, we would conclude by asking some pertinent questions as follows;
1, what is the rationale behind the comparison of two people given the same assignment but without equal opportunities and resources?
2, what is the wisdom in comparing a government with a better economic environment as well as the cost of governance and the one with a harsher and higher environment and cost of governance respectively?
The answer to the above questions is obvious. Whereas it required little or no skills to pilot the affairs of government in the recent past because of the enormous resources available then, it currently needs administrative ingenuity and extra efforts to paddle the canoe of governance in the face of unprecedented economic quagmire prevalent today.
It is mainly out of severe ignorance that people compare administrations, past and present without objective consideration of the inherent economic disparity between or among them. It takes critical objective analysis to unravel the real differences between governments before an informed conclusion can be made.
Even with all these, coupled with inherited huge debt profile, the current Enugu state government under the able leadership of Rt. Hon. Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi has employed deft political sagacity and economic wizardry to brave the odds, sustain the economic tempo, and maintain a high level of performance to the chagrin of informed minds. It is this ingenuity that took Enugu state’s internally generated revenue to an enviable height of #32 billion annually, making it one of the six states in Nigeria today that can survive without federal allocation.
Believe it or not, Ugwuanyi is outperforming most of his contemporaries across Nigeria today and will have the upper hand if rated on a holistic ratio basis with his predecessors. This assertion is verifiable with the application of an acceptable performance index.
Enugu is in the hands of God.
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Presidency Refutes Afenifere’s Deceitful Statement on President Bola Tinubu’s Midterm:
Chief Sunday Dare
The statement from a factional Afenifere group raises serious concerns about a penchant and deliberate attempt to find faults and trade in deceit instead of objectivity. The group has found it challenging to accept that under the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s comeback story is firmly underway.
The rebellious Afenifere claims that President Bola Tinubu’s administration’s performance over the past two years has witnessed a regression in human development, economic mismanagement, and democratic backsliding.
This is a jaundiced view, echoing the view of opposition politicians, one of whom the group supported in the 2023 election.
A balanced assessment based on available data reveals a more objective and progressive picture, with significant achievements amid the challenges expected from a country like Nigeria with decades-old problems.
Beyond its confounding conclusions based on prejudice, the statement raises the following issues. With the ensuing point-by-point clarification, it will become clear that the group’s position is neither grounded in facts nor logic.
- Economic Reforms and Their Impact
The factional Afenifere’s claim that Tinubu’s economic reforms, particularly the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira, have led to “unmitigated sufferings” and “economic deforms” seeks to draw attention to some of the challenges but overlooks the macroeconomic gains. The removal of the fuel subsidy, announced on May 29, 2023, saved the government over $10 billion in 2023 alone, reducing fiscal strain and redirecting funds to other sectors. Unifying the foreign exchange market and the naira’s floatation aimed to address distortions in the currency market, boosted foreign reserves to $38.1 billion by 2024 and achieved a trade surplus of N18.86 trillion for the country.
Under the Tinubu administration, Nigeria’s annual inflation rate fell to 23.71% in April 2025 from 24.23% in the prior month. Food inflation, the most significant component of the inflation basket, remained elevated but moderated to 21.26% from 21.79%
While these figures indicate stabilisation, the immediate impact on ordinary Nigerians is not lost. The government’s cash transfer programme, which provides funds to the poorest households and benefits over 5.7 million households, is a credible outreach.
However, dismissing the twin policies as “unforced errors” ignores the unsustainable nature of the previous subsidy regime and multiple exchange rate systems, which were draining public finances. A more balanced critique would acknowledge the necessity of reform while emphasising the need for better-targeted social safety nets.
As of today, the Tinubu administration has recorded over 900,000 beneficiaries of the Presidential Loan and Grant Scheme, over 600,000 beneficiaries of the Students’ Loan Scheme, NELFUND, N70,000 minimum wage, NYSC monthly stipend increase from N33,000 to N77,000, Free CNG kits distributed to thousands of commercial drivers across Nigeria with CNG buses rolled out in partnership with state governments, leading to a significant drop in transport costs. The administration also recorded over $10 Billion FX debt cleared, Federal account allocation to states growing by 60%, enabling more local development projects, N50 billion released to end the perennial ASUU strikes, and over 1,000 PHCs revitalised nationwide with an additional 5,500 undergoing upgrades.
The administration also disbursed N75 Billion in palliative funds to states and LGs for food distribution and cash transfers, over 150,000 youths are being trained in software development, tech support and data analysis under the 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) project, over 20,000 affordable housing units under construction under the renewed Hope cities program launched across Nigeria, N200 Billion in Loans to farmers and agro-processors. Other gains: over two million Nigerians are now connected to new digital infrastructure and community broadband hubs and public WiFi projects, 3.84% GDP growth in Q4 2024 (highest in 3 years), over $50 Billion in new FDI Commitments, Net Foreign Exchange Reserves up from $3.99 Billion (2023) to $23.11 Billion (2024), over $8 Billion in new oil and gas investments unlocked, and over $800 million realised in processing investments in solid minerals in 2024 and inflation as at April was down to 23.17%.
It is now pertinent to inquire from opposition leaders about alternative strategies they would propose in contrast to this administration’s extensive list of significant achievements currently benefiting Nigerians in real-time.
- Cost of Governance and the Oronsaye Report
The assertion that the Tinubu administration has failed to implement the Oronsaye Report and instead increased governance costs is inaccurate. The Oronsaye Report, which recommends the merger or scrapping of government agencies to reduce expenditure, has not been fully implemented and has drawn criticisms; it must be noted, however, that the administration has made some efforts to improve fiscal discipline. The fiscal deficit was reduced from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024, and the debt service-to-revenue ratio dropped from nearly 100% in 2022 to under 40% by 2024. The government also recorded over N6 trillion in revenue in Q1 2025, partly due to removing Ways & Means financing and fuel subsidies. These steps demonstrate fiscal prudence and will eventually translate into immediate, tangible relief for citizens. The administration is working earnestly to address these optics and prioritise cost-cutting measures, including implementing the Oronsaye Report, to restore public trust.
- Allegations of Prebendalism and Corruption
Afenifere’s claim that the administration favours “the privileged and connected” through corrupt palliative distribution and mega-project allocations is questionable. Reports of palliatives being mismanaged or distributed through unverified channels have no doubt surfaced, raising concerns about transparency.
The administration has taken steps against corruption, such as suspending Humanitarian Affairs Minister Betta Edu in January 2024 over alleged fund diversion, signalling some commitment to accountability. Critics may argue that more systemic action is needed, but dismissing all the efforts as propaganda overlooks these initial steps.
Without abusing Presidential powers, the administration is working on expediting action on all pending investigations and prosecution of corrupt practices. At the same time, critical agencies are collating credible evidence on ongoing corruption litigations. It must, however, be noted that in 2024, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) secured a record-breaking 4,111 convictions, marking its most successful year since its inception. They recovered over N364 billion and significant amounts in foreign currencies, including $214.5 Million, $54,318.64, and 31,265 Euros.
The EFCC achieved its single most significant asset recovery in 2025, with the final forfeiture of an Abuja estate measuring 150,500 square meters and containing 725 units of duplexes and other apartments. The EFCC concluded the final forfeiture and handed the estate to the Ministry of Housing in May 2025.
- Democratic Concerns and Centralisation
Afenifere’s accusation that the Tinubu administration is pursuing a “one-party state totalitarianism” and undermining democratic institutions is unsupported and lacks merit. The claim of neutralising the legislature and judiciary is also a false alarm.
The public should note that the Supreme Court has upheld opposition victories in states like Kano, Plateau, and Abia, suggesting judicial independence. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has faced criticism for allegedly appointing individuals said to be ruling party affiliates, but no evidence confirms these appointees are card-carrying APC members.
The allegation that the Tinubu government cracks down on peaceful protesters is primarily unfounded. It is a regurgitated rhetoric deployed under previous administrations as a reflection of broader challenges in Nigeria’s democratic culture.
The issue of the State Police is more complex than the oversimplified approach of the factional Afenifere’s statement. Every administration policy is subject to security impact assessment before implementation, and there is a difference between the State Police being widely advocated and a Police State that critics may blame the Federal Government for if implemented without caution.
- Security and Social Welfare
Contrary to the impression created, the administration’s security record is impressive. Over 13,500 terrorists, bandits, and insurgents have been neutralised and 7,000 arrested in the past year, though there is still some news of abductions and violent attacks. The administration’s proactive response to security-related matters has paved the way for more farmers to return to their farms, impacting food production and supply.
The administration also embarked on agricultural initiatives, including tractor procurement, fertiliser distribution, and increased mechanisation.
The government has also not relented on its Regional Development drive as the administration succeeded in establishing Development Commissions across 6 Geopolitical zones (South West, North West, North Central. North East, South East and the Niger Delta) to empower communities and accelerate developments.
- Political Climate and 2027 Elections
The claims of government-sponsored conflicts within opposition parties lack concrete evidence and should be ignored.
Economic reforms are undoubtedly laying the foundation for long-term stability, with GDP growth at 4.6% in Q4 2024 and a Fitch B credit rating upgrade as evidence. Moody’s Investors Service’s latest upgrade of Nigeria’s rating from Caa1 to B3, with a Stable Outlook, indicates that the Tinubu administration is on the right path.
The government is not oblivious to some discontent and difficult times among Nigerians. There is an urgency to deliver more tangible results, which is guaranteed given the impressive performance of the administration in just two years.
Afenifere’s statement saw the cup as half empty. On the contrary, it’s half full. Under President Tinubu’s administration, some of Nigeria’s hydra-headed problems are being tackled headlong.
The administration has achieved fiscal improvements, such as reduced deficits and increased revenues, which will eventually translate into meaningful microeconomic relief for most Nigerians in the short term, even as the government moves to address these issues with greater empathy and transparency.
The administration’s demonstrable priorities are securing the nation, fixing the economy, and improving human capital development.
Responsible citizens and political leaders must work collaboratively with the administration to address the challenges and counter disinformation, as highlighted in the admonition against fake news and deceptive AI videos.
Under President Tinubu’s leadership, Nigeria is turning the corner. From stabilising the naira and curbing inflation to reducing debt burdens and
expanding access to education and health, the administration delivers bold reforms with actual results. With improved security, regional inclusion, anti-corruption measures, and institutional rebuilding, Nigeria’s comeback story is not yet complete — but it is firmly underway.
– Sunday Dare is the Special Adviser to Mr. President on Media and Public Communications.
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