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HOW ZONING DECIDED THE OUTCOME OF THE RECENT ONDO GOVERNORSHIP ELECTION

Published

5 years ago

October 14, 2020

From Josephat Omeke

More facts have continued to emerge from the just concluded Ondo State governorship election conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission. Although many pundits predicted the victory of the APC gubernatorial candidate in the election and incumbent Governor Chief Oluwarotimi Akeredolu, only a few arrived at that conclusion on the basis of competence and performance but on extraneous factors and considerations.

Aside from the incumbency factor which favoured the APC both at the state and federal level, one of the party’s high points was an amazing success Governor Akeredolu recorded in reconciling with members of the Unity Forum, a dissident breakaway faction of the APC in the state which swore to do everything to replace the Governor with one of their own following irreconcilable differences.

This group which remained the greatest formidable threat to the reelection of Governor Akeredolu providentially imploded just a few weeks to the party’s primaries. That happened when most of its members angrily rejected the emergence of Chief Olusola Oke( SAN) as the group’s consensus candidate to battle Akeredolu at the party’s primaries.

Capitalizing on the rift, the Governor effectively utilized the weapon of divide and rule to ensure that members of the Unity Forum never got back together again thus leaving it completely disorganized at the time of the primaries and which eventually led to his smooth and seamless nomination as the governorship candidate of the APC.

Fully aware that his trouble with members of the Unity Forum did not disappear simply because he had picked his party’s ticket, the Governor laboured relentlessly and eventually succeeded in wooing all the members of the Forum to his side after meeting their tough conditions.

The Ondo A P C thus went into the general election as one single and the united party whose only worry was how to defeat Eyitayo Jegede an acclaimed formidable force who had once again emerged candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party. Jegede’s strength did not only lie in his towering personality but also the fact that he came from Akure, the largest single voting block in the state with over 200,000 registered voters.

Aside from the Akure factor which the PDP banked heavily upon, Jegede was seen by many as a candidate to beat owing to his charisma and campaign-style which focused steadfastly and tenaciously on major weaknesses of the Akeredolu’s administration. One of such low points and which resonated well with the Ondo electorate throughout the electioneering was that of the exorbitant school fees charged by the state-owned institutions and which he Jegede promised to bring down. Ondo from where Ekiti state was carved out remains one of the most educated in the country and thus sensitive about issues pertaining to education.

However, Jegede had many low points one of which was his failure to bring in big fishes into his fold to match those paraded by the APC. One such big fish outside members of the Unity Forum was Alhaji Jimoh Ibrahim, the man who battled him bitterly for the PDP’s gubernatorial ticket in 2016 and who later decided to throw his weight behind Akeredolu’s reelection. Others include Chief Alasaudura the incumbent Minister of State for Niger Delta Affairs who also worked tirelessly for the Akeredolu 2020 project.

Chief Jegede’s woes were compounded by the refusal of his erstwhile Godfather Dr. Olusegun Mimiko a former Governor of the state to support his ambition once again and who instead threw his weight behind the candidacy of Agboola Ajayi who later became the candidate of the Zenith Labour Party.

However, many observers of Ondo state politics were of the opinion that although Governor Akeredolu’s performance, as well as other factors aforementioned, contributed to the outcome of the election, zoning was one single most decisive factor which swung the pendulum in favor of Akeredolu.

According to them, Ondo state is one of the states in the federation where the zoning of political offices including that of Governor is regarded as sacrosanct and inviolable had over the years had the practice deeply entrenched in the politics of the state. The people of the state were thus aware that the next Governor of the state come 2023 would emerge from the Ondo South Senatorial District.

Since both former Governor Ade Adefarati who governed the state from 1999 to 2003 and Chief Olusegun Agagu who took over from him did not complete two terms, it was only after Governor Olusegun Mimiko from Ondo central senatorial district had the privilege of doing so that the zoning principle with regards to governorship became firmly established in the state.

After Mimiko’s eight years, the incumbent Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu from Ondo North Senatorial district took over in 2016 and sought reelection in 2020. Naturally, if Akeredolu was allowed to complete two terms, it would indisputably be the turn of Ondo South Senatorial district being the only senatorial district yet to take its turn in 2024.

It’s pertinent to note at this point that it was this same zoning factor that worked against Jegede in 2016 that returned to haunt him in the 2020 election. This is because Chief Jegede of the PDP came from the same Ondo central senatorial district as Mimiko who served two terms and had already utilized the slot of the senatorial district. The zoning albatross thus continued to be the nemesis of Jegede’s campaign and from which he never recovered.

Agboola Ajayi the incumbent deputy Governor who came from Ondo south senatorial district and who ordinarily would have been the most favoured in terms of zoning was largely seen as unserious by most Ondo people partly for choosing a relatively new party with weak structures to prosecute his ambition. This was so because the same party he chose; the Zenith Labour Party was unable to guarantee victory for former Governor Mimiko the founder of the party at his 2019 Senatorial election.

Again and most importantly, there was a general feeling in Ondo that both Ajayi and Jegede ( none of whom came from Ondo North as Akeredolu)were breaking the zoning arrangement by contesting against Ondo north which should be allowed to finish its own eight years so as to enable Ondo south take its turn in 2023.

Furthermore, aside from what Ondo people felt about the ambitions of the two gentlemen with respect to truncating the entire zoning or rotational arrangement, most people of Ondo south particularly who would have had sympathy for Jegede and the PDP felt that a vote for Jegede would give him a fresh eight years as opposed to Akeredolu who just had four more years to transfer power to them.

They thus voted massively for A PC not necessarily out of love for Akeredolu or his party, but to protect the zoning principle from which they stood to benefit sooner than later. This explains why APC won all the local government areas of the Ondo South senatorial district thereby sending a clear message that they preferred to wait for four years with Akeredolu than eight years with Jegede. It’s thus indisputable that it was the massive votes from the Ondo south senatorial district that became the stroke which broke the camel’s back and decided the outcome of the Ondo election more than anything else.

Taking a cue from Ondo state, as well as the majority of other states which believe in zoning, political parties must begin to respect the issue of zoning of political offices in their choice of candidates for elections to avoid having their fingers burnt as happened in Ondo state. The latest case has thus further confirmed the fact that the electorate’s attachment to zoning is by far stronger than that of their political parties. This is understandably so because zoning or the rotation principle unlike mere political party affiliation guarantees equity and a sense of belonging to all the component parts of a state.

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Presidency Refutes Afenifere’s Deceitful Statement on President Bola Tinubu’s Midterm:

Published

3 days ago

June 5, 2025

The Gleamer

Chief Sunday Dare

The statement from a factional Afenifere group raises serious concerns about a penchant and deliberate attempt to find faults and trade in deceit instead of objectivity. The group has found it challenging to accept that under the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s comeback story is firmly underway.

The rebellious Afenifere claims that President Bola Tinubu’s administration’s performance over the past two years has witnessed a regression in human development, economic mismanagement, and democratic backsliding.

This is a jaundiced view, echoing the view of opposition politicians, one of whom the group supported in the 2023 election.

A balanced assessment based on available data reveals a more objective and progressive picture, with significant achievements amid the challenges expected from a country like Nigeria with decades-old problems.

Beyond its confounding conclusions based on prejudice, the statement raises the following issues. With the ensuing point-by-point clarification, it will become clear that the group’s position is neither grounded in facts nor logic.

Economic Reforms and Their Impact

The factional Afenifere’s claim that Tinubu’s economic reforms, particularly the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira, have led to “unmitigated sufferings” and “economic deforms” seeks to draw attention to some of the challenges but overlooks the macroeconomic gains. The removal of the fuel subsidy, announced on May 29, 2023, saved the government over $10 billion in 2023 alone, reducing fiscal strain and redirecting funds to other sectors. Unifying the foreign exchange market and the naira’s floatation aimed to address distortions in the currency market, boosted foreign reserves to $38.1 billion by 2024 and achieved a trade surplus of N18.86 trillion for the country.

Under the Tinubu administration, Nigeria’s annual inflation rate fell to 23.71% in April 2025 from 24.23% in the prior month. Food inflation, the most significant component of the inflation basket, remained elevated but moderated to 21.26% from 21.79%

While these figures indicate stabilisation, the immediate impact on ordinary Nigerians is not lost. The government’s cash transfer programme, which provides funds to the poorest households and benefits over 5.7 million households, is a credible outreach.

However, dismissing the twin policies as “unforced errors” ignores the unsustainable nature of the previous subsidy regime and multiple exchange rate systems, which were draining public finances. A more balanced critique would acknowledge the necessity of reform while emphasising the need for better-targeted social safety nets.

As of today, the Tinubu administration has recorded over 900,000 beneficiaries of the Presidential Loan and Grant Scheme, over 600,000 beneficiaries of the Students’ Loan Scheme, NELFUND, N70,000 minimum wage, NYSC monthly stipend increase from N33,000 to N77,000, Free CNG kits distributed to thousands of commercial drivers across Nigeria with CNG buses rolled out in partnership with state governments, leading to a significant drop in transport costs. The administration also recorded over $10 Billion FX debt cleared, Federal account allocation to states growing by 60%, enabling more local development projects, N50 billion released to end the perennial ASUU strikes, and over 1,000 PHCs revitalised nationwide with an additional 5,500 undergoing upgrades.

The administration also disbursed N75 Billion in palliative funds to states and LGs for food distribution and cash transfers, over 150,000 youths are being trained in software development, tech support and data analysis under the 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) project, over 20,000 affordable housing units under construction under the renewed Hope cities program launched across Nigeria, N200 Billion in Loans to farmers and agro-processors. Other gains: over two million Nigerians are now connected to new digital infrastructure and community broadband hubs and public WiFi projects, 3.84% GDP growth in Q4 2024 (highest in 3 years), over $50 Billion in new FDI Commitments, Net Foreign Exchange Reserves up from $3.99 Billion (2023) to $23.11 Billion (2024), over $8 Billion in new oil and gas investments unlocked, and over $800 million realised in processing investments in solid minerals in 2024 and inflation as at April was down to 23.17%.

It is now pertinent to inquire from opposition leaders about alternative strategies they would propose in contrast to this administration’s extensive list of significant achievements currently benefiting Nigerians in real-time.

Cost of Governance and the Oronsaye Report

The assertion that the Tinubu administration has failed to implement the Oronsaye Report and instead increased governance costs is inaccurate. The Oronsaye Report, which recommends the merger or scrapping of government agencies to reduce expenditure, has not been fully implemented and has drawn criticisms; it must be noted, however, that the administration has made some efforts to improve fiscal discipline. The fiscal deficit was reduced from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024, and the debt service-to-revenue ratio dropped from nearly 100% in 2022 to under 40% by 2024. The government also recorded over N6 trillion in revenue in Q1 2025, partly due to removing Ways & Means financing and fuel subsidies. These steps demonstrate fiscal prudence and will eventually translate into immediate, tangible relief for citizens. The administration is working earnestly to address these optics and prioritise cost-cutting measures, including implementing the Oronsaye Report, to restore public trust.

Allegations of Prebendalism and Corruption

Afenifere’s claim that the administration favours “the privileged and connected” through corrupt palliative distribution and mega-project allocations is questionable. Reports of palliatives being mismanaged or distributed through unverified channels have no doubt surfaced, raising concerns about transparency.

The administration has taken steps against corruption, such as suspending Humanitarian Affairs Minister Betta Edu in January 2024 over alleged fund diversion, signalling some commitment to accountability. Critics may argue that more systemic action is needed, but dismissing all the efforts as propaganda overlooks these initial steps.

Without abusing Presidential powers, the administration is working on expediting action on all pending investigations and prosecution of corrupt practices. At the same time, critical agencies are collating credible evidence on ongoing corruption litigations. It must, however, be noted that in 2024, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) secured a record-breaking 4,111 convictions, marking its most successful year since its inception. They recovered over N364 billion and significant amounts in foreign currencies, including $214.5 Million, $54,318.64, and 31,265 Euros.

The EFCC achieved its single most significant asset recovery in 2025, with the final forfeiture of an Abuja estate measuring 150,500 square meters and containing 725 units of duplexes and other apartments. The EFCC concluded the final forfeiture and handed the estate to the Ministry of Housing in May 2025.

Democratic Concerns and Centralisation

Afenifere’s accusation that the Tinubu administration is pursuing a “one-party state totalitarianism” and undermining democratic institutions is unsupported and lacks merit. The claim of neutralising the legislature and judiciary is also a false alarm.

The public should note that the Supreme Court has upheld opposition victories in states like Kano, Plateau, and Abia, suggesting judicial independence. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has faced criticism for allegedly appointing individuals said to be ruling party affiliates, but no evidence confirms these appointees are card-carrying APC members.

The allegation that the Tinubu government cracks down on peaceful protesters is primarily unfounded. It is a regurgitated rhetoric deployed under previous administrations as a reflection of broader challenges in Nigeria’s democratic culture.

The issue of the State Police is more complex than the oversimplified approach of the factional Afenifere’s statement. Every administration policy is subject to security impact assessment before implementation, and there is a difference between the State Police being widely advocated and a Police State that critics may blame the Federal Government for if implemented without caution.

Security and Social Welfare

Contrary to the impression created, the administration’s security record is impressive. Over 13,500 terrorists, bandits, and insurgents have been neutralised and 7,000 arrested in the past year, though there is still some news of abductions and violent attacks. The administration’s proactive response to security-related matters has paved the way for more farmers to return to their farms, impacting food production and supply.

The administration also embarked on agricultural initiatives, including tractor procurement, fertiliser distribution, and increased mechanisation.

The government has also not relented on its Regional Development drive as the administration succeeded in establishing Development Commissions across 6 Geopolitical zones (South West, North West, North Central. North East, South East and the Niger Delta) to empower communities and accelerate developments.

Political Climate and 2027 Elections
The claims of government-sponsored conflicts within opposition parties lack concrete evidence and should be ignored.

Economic reforms are undoubtedly laying the foundation for long-term stability, with GDP growth at 4.6% in Q4 2024 and a Fitch B credit rating upgrade as evidence. Moody’s Investors Service’s latest upgrade of Nigeria’s rating from Caa1 to B3, with a Stable Outlook, indicates that the Tinubu administration is on the right path.

The government is not oblivious to some discontent and difficult times among Nigerians. There is an urgency to deliver more tangible results, which is guaranteed given the impressive performance of the administration in just two years.

Afenifere’s statement saw the cup as half empty. On the contrary, it’s half full. Under President Tinubu’s administration, some of Nigeria’s hydra-headed problems are being tackled headlong.

The administration has achieved fiscal improvements, such as reduced deficits and increased revenues, which will eventually translate into meaningful microeconomic relief for most Nigerians in the short term, even as the government moves to address these issues with greater empathy and transparency.

The administration’s demonstrable priorities are securing the nation, fixing the economy, and improving human capital development.

Responsible citizens and political leaders must work collaboratively with the administration to address the challenges and counter disinformation, as highlighted in the admonition against fake news and deceptive AI videos.

Under President Tinubu’s leadership, Nigeria is turning the corner. From stabilising the naira and curbing inflation to reducing debt burdens and

expanding access to education and health, the administration delivers bold reforms with actual results. With improved security, regional inclusion, anti-corruption measures, and institutional rebuilding, Nigeria’s comeback story is not yet complete — but it is firmly underway.

– Sunday Dare is the Special Adviser to Mr. President on Media and Public Communications.

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