From Josephat Omeke

More facts have continued to emerge from the just concluded Ondo State governorship election conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission. Although many pundits predicted the victory of the APC gubernatorial candidate in the election and incumbent Governor Chief Oluwarotimi Akeredolu, only a few arrived at that conclusion on the basis of competence and performance but on extraneous factors and considerations.

Aside from the incumbency factor which favoured the APC both at the state and federal level, one of the party’s high points was an amazing success Governor Akeredolu recorded in reconciling with members of the Unity Forum, a dissident breakaway faction of the APC in the state which swore to do everything to replace the Governor with one of their own following irreconcilable differences.

This group which remained the greatest formidable threat to the reelection of Governor Akeredolu providentially imploded just a few weeks to the party’s primaries. That happened when most of its members angrily rejected the emergence of Chief Olusola Oke( SAN) as the group’s consensus candidate to battle Akeredolu at the party’s primaries.

Capitalizing on the rift, the Governor effectively utilized the weapon of divide and rule to ensure that members of the Unity Forum never got back together again thus leaving it completely disorganized at the time of the primaries and which eventually led to his smooth and seamless nomination as the governorship candidate of the APC.

Fully aware that his trouble with members of the Unity Forum did not disappear simply because he had picked his party’s ticket, the Governor laboured relentlessly and eventually succeeded in wooing all the members of the Forum to his side after meeting their tough conditions.

The Ondo A P C thus went into the general election as one single and the united party whose only worry was how to defeat Eyitayo Jegede an acclaimed formidable force who had once again emerged candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party. Jegede’s strength did not only lie in his towering personality but also the fact that he came from Akure, the largest single voting block in the state with over 200,000 registered voters.

Aside from the Akure factor which the PDP banked heavily upon, Jegede was seen by many as a candidate to beat owing to his charisma and campaign-style which focused steadfastly and tenaciously on major weaknesses of the Akeredolu’s administration. One of such low points and which resonated well with the Ondo electorate throughout the electioneering was that of the exorbitant school fees charged by the state-owned institutions and which he Jegede promised to bring down. Ondo from where Ekiti state was carved out remains one of the most educated in the country and thus sensitive about issues pertaining to education.

However, Jegede had many low points one of which was his failure to bring in big fishes into his fold to match those paraded by the APC. One such big fish outside members of the Unity Forum was Alhaji Jimoh Ibrahim, the man who battled him bitterly for the PDP’s gubernatorial ticket in 2016 and who later decided to throw his weight behind Akeredolu’s reelection. Others include Chief Alasaudura the incumbent Minister of State for Niger Delta Affairs who also worked tirelessly for the Akeredolu 2020 project.

Chief Jegede’s woes were compounded by the refusal of his erstwhile Godfather Dr. Olusegun Mimiko a former Governor of the state to support his ambition once again and who instead threw his weight behind the candidacy of Agboola Ajayi who later became the candidate of the Zenith Labour Party.

However, many observers of Ondo state politics were of the opinion that although Governor Akeredolu’s performance, as well as other factors aforementioned, contributed to the outcome of the election, zoning was one single most decisive factor which swung the pendulum in favor of Akeredolu.

According to them, Ondo state is one of the states in the federation where the zoning of political offices including that of Governor is regarded as sacrosanct and inviolable had over the years had the practice deeply entrenched in the politics of the state. The people of the state were thus aware that the next Governor of the state come 2023 would emerge from the Ondo South Senatorial District.

Since both former Governor Ade Adefarati who governed the state from 1999 to 2003 and Chief Olusegun Agagu who took over from him did not complete two terms, it was only after Governor Olusegun Mimiko from Ondo central senatorial district had the privilege of doing so that the zoning principle with regards to governorship became firmly established in the state.

After Mimiko’s eight years, the incumbent Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu from Ondo North Senatorial district took over in 2016 and sought reelection in 2020. Naturally, if Akeredolu was allowed to complete two terms, it would indisputably be the turn of Ondo South Senatorial district being the only senatorial district yet to take its turn in 2024.

It’s pertinent to note at this point that it was this same zoning factor that worked against Jegede in 2016 that returned to haunt him in the 2020 election. This is because Chief Jegede of the PDP came from the same Ondo central senatorial district as Mimiko who served two terms and had already utilized the slot of the senatorial district. The zoning albatross thus continued to be the nemesis of Jegede’s campaign and from which he never recovered.

Agboola Ajayi the incumbent deputy Governor who came from Ondo south senatorial district and who ordinarily would have been the most favoured in terms of zoning was largely seen as unserious by most Ondo people partly for choosing a relatively new party with weak structures to prosecute his ambition. This was so because the same party he chose; the Zenith Labour Party was unable to guarantee victory for former Governor Mimiko the founder of the party at his 2019 Senatorial election.

Again and most importantly, there was a general feeling in Ondo that both Ajayi and Jegede ( none of whom came from Ondo North as Akeredolu)were breaking the zoning arrangement by contesting against Ondo north which should be allowed to finish its own eight years so as to enable Ondo south take its turn in 2023.

Furthermore, aside from what Ondo people felt about the ambitions of the two gentlemen with respect to truncating the entire zoning or rotational arrangement, most people of Ondo south particularly who would have had sympathy for Jegede and the PDP felt that a vote for Jegede would give him a fresh eight years as opposed to Akeredolu who just had four more years to transfer power to them.

They thus voted massively for A PC not necessarily out of love for Akeredolu or his party, but to protect the zoning principle from which they stood to benefit sooner than later. This explains why APC won all the local government areas of the Ondo South senatorial district thereby sending a clear message that they preferred to wait for four years with Akeredolu than eight years with Jegede. It’s thus indisputable that it was the massive votes from the Ondo south senatorial district that became the stroke which broke the camel’s back and decided the outcome of the Ondo election more than anything else.

Taking a cue from Ondo state, as well as the majority of other states which believe in zoning, political parties must begin to respect the issue of zoning of political offices in their choice of candidates for elections to avoid having their fingers burnt as happened in Ondo state. The latest case has thus further confirmed the fact that the electorate’s attachment to zoning is by far stronger than that of their political parties. This is understandably so because zoning or the rotation principle unlike mere political party affiliation guarantees equity and a sense of belonging to all the component parts of a state.

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